New NY 23rd

Tom Reed and Donald Trump both have predicted that the Republicans can defeat Hillary Clinton in New York State is in the year’s election. They are being pretty hopeful, because there are more Democrats in NYC (3,071,159) than Republicans in NYS (2,731,688). (source: NYS Board of Elections, as of April 1, 2016). Sure, Trump can beat Hillary in New York, but he won’t.

Like most Upstate districts, the Republicans dominate the NY23rd. You might be surprised that, according to the NYS Board of Elections, the Republicans make of 37.4% of the registered voters in our district, only 5% more than the Democrats. The third largest group of voters are “blanks”–not affiliated to any political party.

According to Tom Reed he supports Donald Trump because the NY23rd Republicans overwhelming voted for Trump in the April Primary election. Looking at the election results, only 52.1% of the NY23rd  republicans favored Trump. The near-by districts supported Trump by a much higher rate. In the  26th (Buffalo) 64% supported Trump. He received 63% of the vote in the 27th (Genesee, Livingston & Orleans Counties). Matter of fact only three districts north of NYC, the 20th at 48.6% (which includes Albany), 24th at 48.3% (which includes Syracuse) & 26th at 51.3% (which includes Rochester) supported Trump less than we did. (Source: NYS Board of Elections)

Those NY 23rd republicans who did not favor Trump, and didn’t want to vote for Cruz or Carson–aka moderate, traditional republicans–voted for John Kasich. He received just over 16,000 votes. Will Kasich’s voters now support Trump? Some will, but I contend that most will not. They can say they are staying  home, or that they will vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, but as election day draws closer, they will feel the need to vote for Hillary to make sure Trump is defeated. Trump’s campaign escapades will not endear him to the Kasich’s voters, nor will Democrat swarm to Trump.

How does that affect our congressional race? In most states republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump and they generally receiving  higher poll numbers than his. Our congressman is in the opposite situation. Reed was one of Trump’s early congressional supporter, was named Trump’s NYS Co-Chair, and he is sticking with him. Sure Trump supporters will vote for Reed. Will the “No Trump No Way” Kasich voters vote for Reed? I think not. Will the Democrats vote for Reed. I think not.

NY23rd Data From the April Republican Primary 

The judicial power of the United States shall not be construed to extend to any suit in law or equity, commenced or prosecuted against one of the United States by citizens of another state, or by citizens or subjects of any foreign state.— Eleventh Amendment

The case is LE ROY TORRES, (Petitioner) v. TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY

The case concerns Le Roy Torres, who served in the Army Reserve for almost two decades. When he returned to Texas, his medical condition did not allow him to resume his duties as a state trooper, and he asked the state for a different job. Texas refused, and Mr. Torres sued under a federal law, the Uniformed Services Employment and Re-employment Rights Act of 1994, which protects veterans from job discrimination and requires employers to make reasonable accommodations for their disabilities. The question for the justices was whether Congress was entitled to override states’ sovereign immunity, which generally protects them from lawsuits seeking money.

The Eleventh Amendment doesn’t explicitly protect states from lawsuits seeking money:

Although the text of the Amendment would appear to restrict only the Article III diversity jurisdiction of the federal courts, “We have understood the Eleventh Amendment to stand not so much for what it says, but for the presupposition . . . which it confirms.” Blatchford v. Native Village of Noatak.

Thus it’s not the text of the Eleventh Amendment that matters, but a presupposition! That should give the nine Justices something to consider.

Rep. Reed in Hinsdale photo by Christina Bruner Sonsire

Rep. Tom Reed has announced his Town Hall Meeting schedule for Saturday, June 3. They will be in the eastern/central part of the district–in Tompkins, Ontario, Steuben, and Chemung Counties.

• 8:30 to 9:30 AM, Trumansburg Fire Department, 74 Main Street, Trumansburg, NY.
• 11:00 to 12:00, White Springs Fire Association, 3770 County Road 6, Geneva NY.
• 1:30 to 2:30, Bradford Fire Rep., 7603 County Route 20, Bradford, NY
• 4:00 to 5:00, 1138 Breesport Road, Erin, NY

For those who may want to attend, Trumansburg is about 20 minutes west of Ithaca.  The Geneva event is actually 10 minutes south of Geneva, which is 20 minutes south of Exit 42 of the New York Thruway. Bradford is about a 20 minutes drive north-east of  Bath. Erin is about 20 minutes north-east of Elmira.

For those true-hearted Town Hall fans, the Geneva meeting is scheduled to end at 12:00 and the Bradford meeting is slated to start 90 minutes later. According to Google Maps, it is only a 50 minute drive. You can take in both events, and even pick up lunch at Penn Yan’s McDonald’s!

Rep. Reed usually tells us what he wants us to hear. He needs to be reminded of  his AHCA vote, which includes cutting $880 Billion from Medicaid and adding $600 Billion to cut taxes for those earning $200,000.

One thing that he didn’t bring up at the May Hinsdale meeting is the AHCA has a “lifetime limit” clause. This video/article tells that the ACA became law a few days before a young boy would have reached his “lifetime limit”. His parents are afraid of what would happen if the ACA is repealed.

The Trump Budget has appeared, and  Reed is now concerned about the “lower-income” side of the equation:

“As you deal with a lot of the lines in the federal budget, obviously, a lot of them are geared toward the lower-income, more poverty side of the equation, and rightly so,” Reed said. “Those are people that are dealing with life’s curveballs. They’re in a position to need assistance, and I will stand with those types of programs.” Buffalo News.

Has he really changed of heart, or is he reading the polls?

Last Saturday (May 20), Rep. Reed spoke on MSNBC on the Russian Investigations. He said:

“When you see things like the Intelligence Director Clapper says he saw no evidence of collusion, when you see the FBI Director Comey testify that no one asked him to do anything in regards to the investigations under oath. You know these are indications that the – let’s see where the investigations go, but let’s not come to a predetermined conclusion that the president is somehow engaged in this nefarious activity, I just don’t see it at this point in time.” MSNBC

Here is a little reminder of Rep. Reed’s May Town Hall events:

Tracy Mitrano

• Tried to hide support for a national gun registry, (1)
• Supports healthcare plan that will bankrupt Medicare. (2)
• Stated that our manufacturing jobs are not worth saving. (3)
• Won’t take a position about outsourcing our jobs. (3)
• Took campaign funding from Andrew Cuomo. (4)

Notes:

1. The Washington Free Beacon is an American conservative political journalism website.
2. nystateofpolitics is “Spectrum News,” which is biased against Governor Cuomo and perhaps other Democrats.
3. There is nothing new about negative campaigning for Tom Reed. He has consistently relied on negative ads and dirty tricks.

This entry was posted in 2018, Campaign Finances, Campaigning, Congress, Gun Violence, Health Care, Medicare, Political, Reed’s Views, Seniors, Social Security and tagged Free Beacon, Spectrum News, Tracy Mitrano. Bookmark the permalink.

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has been quietly exploring whether there was any “outside interference” in the election results and will participate in the election recount in Wisconsin initiated by Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein …  —news reports

The above image purports to show a discrepency between exit polls and vote totals in Wisconsin. What are we to make of this? If exit polls accurately reflect the intent of the voters, then the reported vote is most likely wrong. But there are other more likely explanations.

• The poll wasn’t a random sample of voters, possibly because some group avoided the poll takers or wouldn’t answer their questions.
• Some poll respondents gave misleading answers.
• Some voters didn’t vote for the candidate whom they thought they did.

If there were a problem with the reported vote, here are some possibilities:

• Voting machines were faulty.
• Voting machines were tampered with.
• Vote totals don’t reflect the vote.

The explanation, if there is one, will be very interesting, especially if linked to a particular type of voting machine.

Click to access TrumpWI.D3.pdf

https://philebersole.wordpress.com/2016/11/26/the-presidential-vote-recount/

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/307529-why-is-jill-stein-challenging-election-results

This entry was posted in 2016 and tagged election, fraud, Voting, Wisconsin. Bookmark the permalink.

Ithaca

Ovid

Manchester

Pultney

This entry was posted in 2017, Reed’s Views, Town Hall Meeting. Bookmark the permalink.

New York’s State Primary will be held on Thursday, September 13.

Please note:

• New York has a law that prohibits an election on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks–which happened on a Primary Election day.
• New York is the only state that holds it’s State Primary and Federal Primary on different days. (Some states have a second primary for run offs it no candidate receives more 50% of the vote)
• Unlike in June, the Democratic AND the Reform Parties will both be holding a primay.
• Like in June, the Republican Party will not have a statewide primary or a legislature primary in the NY-23rd.

For Democrats there will be three Statewide races:

• There are two  State Legislature races in the NY23:
  • in the 58th NYS Senatorial District (Counties of Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Yates, the city and Town of Ithaca, Towns of Enfield, Newfield, and Ulysses) have two democrats (Amanda Kirchgessner and Michael Lausell) on the ballot.
  • The 124th Assembly District (Towns of: Ashland, Baldwin, Barton, Berkshire, Big Flats, Candor, Chemung, Elmira, Horseheads, Maine, Newark Valley, Nichols, Owego, Richford, Southport, Spencer, and Tioga) has two democrats (Bill Batrowny and Randy Reid) who will be on the ballot.
  • Those who live in the towns of Ashland, Baldwin, Big Flats, Chemung, Elmira, Horseheads,  and South Park are in both 58th Senatorial District and the 124th Assembly District. Therefore they can vote for both of the Legislature races.

The Reform Party will have one Statewide Race:

The election is four weeks from Thursday. We have time to learn about the candidates and where they stand on the issues. We have time to talk to others about the candidates and the issues and getting more voters engaged in the political process. Voters who vote in primaries will probably vote in the general election in November.

Getting democrats to vote on September 13 will help Tracy Mitrano in November

This entry was posted in 2018. Bookmark the permalink.

Each map below can be made lager by clicking on it. In an article posted in the New NY23rd in February, NY-23rd’s Jobs and Unemployment Data, I presented a map of NYS (below, left) that compared the number of jobs … Continue reading

Posted in 2018, Economics, Uncategorized Tagged jobs in NY23rd, Political Instandity

Does harsh punishment reduce crime? The opposite is true at least in some cases according to an article by Emile Bazelon printed in The New York Times on February 5th. Bazelon cites studies which show that leniency, prosecuting some crimes as misdemeanors rather than felonies for example, can cut recidivism significantly, sometimes to less than one half. Those punished with other than prison time, are more likely to get a job and not offend again. Bazelon writes:

Accumulating research in well-designed studies supports the idea, counterintuitive though it may seem, that prosecuting fewer people can actually reduce crime. Last year, for instance, researchers looked at more than 67,000 misdemeanor cases in Suffolk County, Mass., which includes Boston, and found that people arrested but not charged for offenses like drug possession and shoplifting were less than half as likely as those who were prosecuted to be arrested again two years later for a new crime.

Counterintuitive it is. Politicians are not criminologists. When they address complex issues like crime and punishment, they may speak out of ignorance, or perhaps seeking to mislead.

This entry was posted in Congress, Political and tagged Alvin Bragg, Crime, leniency, recidivism. Bookmark the permalink.

On Saturday, January 20, the Chautauqua County Democratic Committee voted to endorse Jamestown Attorney Eddie Sundquist to be the Democratic Nominee for Congress.
According to the Press Release from CCDC’s Chair Norm Green, the Committee needed four rounds of voting before one candidate, Sundquist, received a majority of the Committee members votes. It also stated that Professor Tracy Mitrano and Air Force Veteran Max Della Pia came in second and thirds respectively.

With the endorsement, Green said that all the Committee members are “duty bound” to pass petitions and campaign for Sundquist. Sundquist, as well as the other six democratic candidates, need to collect at least 1,250 signatures of NY23rd registered democrats to be  able to participate in the June 26 Democratic Primary. The period to pass petitions begins March 6. They will need to be filed in Albany by April 12.

The Press Released the following data:

The Democratic enrollment by county is Allegany (5,794) Cattaraugus (14,102) Chautauqua (25,268) Chemung (15,174) Ontario (8,539) Schuyler (3,242) Seneca (5,887) Steuben (14,004) Tioga (6,127) Tompkins (28,003) Yates (3,225) for a Grand Total of 129,365 Active Democrats. (11,441 Dems turned out for the 2012 Congressional Primary in the NY23.)

In October, the three western NY-23rd counties (Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua) held a Straw Poll fund-raising event which was won by Businessman Ian Golden, Sundquist was second and  Mitrano was third. .

The candidates have been in numerous Meet & Greet Forums around the district. On Tuesday all candidates are planning to be at an Issued-Focused Forum in Geneva. Then on Sunday, January 28 a Meet & Greet will be held in Seneca Falls. The Yates County Democratic Committee is planning a Meet & Greet after the petition process and with the candidates who has had their petitions certified. Hopefully other opportunities to meet the candidates will be scheduled. (Please inform the New NY23rd when  other opportunities are scheduled).

These events are aimed to help inform registered Democrats about their choices for the Primary. They also may be useful to any voter who has the slightest uneasiness about what is happening in Washington. Knowledge is power.