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Category Archives: 2018
NY-23 before and after the 2020 Census
Note, all numbers (except percentages) are in thousands. After the 2020 census, NY-23 shifted west, losing Tompkins and Tioga Counties and adding Erie County suburbs. Year Dem Rep Con WF Rep&Con Dem&WF 2021 133 161 8 2 169 135 2022 … Continue reading
Silly arguments
Be calm in arguing, for fierceness makes error a fault and truth discourtesy. —George Herbert Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does the work.–Mark Twain I’ll sing like a bird.–John Dean I’m all in favor of serious discussion that’s based … Continue reading
Posted in 2018, Campaign Finances, Campaigning, Trump
3 Comments
Our misperceptions
We Americans don’t know as much as we think we do. For example, only 59% of us guess that the most Americans killed by others are killed with firearms. Here is more data from the IPSOS study of misperceptions in … Continue reading
Did NY-23 candidates do as expected?
With some assumptions, I have computed the expected vote for Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano. The actual vote is strikingly similar to the expected vote. Assumptions: Republicans, Conservatives, and those registered with the Independence Party prefer the Republican Party candidate. … Continue reading
NY-23 Election Results
Well done, Tracy Mitrano. Year Candidate Votes Percentage 2012 Reed/Shinagawa 127/117/243 52/48 2014 Reed/Robertson 113/70/190 59/37 2016 Reed/Plumb 161/110/280 58/42 2018 Reed/Mitrano* 122/100/223 54/44 *Preliminary results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/ny-23-election-results-tom-reed-tracy-mitrano-congress/1896127002/
What they say about themselves
For the over one-third of residents in our district relying on public health insurance, these cuts (to Medicare and Medicaid) would be devastating.–Tracy Mitrano We are fighting to protect Medicare and Social Security, and have never supported a plan that … Continue reading
Posted in 2018, Campaigning, Economics, Health Care, Medicare, Reed's Views, Social Security, Taxes
Tagged Tracy Mitrano
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Diversity in Congress
For the 2018 mid-term elections, an unprecedented number of women are standing, with more than 250 in the running for Congressional office following the selection of candidates in the primaries.–BBC News Congress poorly reflects the population; in particular, women are … Continue reading
A campaign mailing
I have an interesting letter from an incumbent on the Chemung County Legislature who is running for reelection. He doesn’t mention his party, but he is a Republican. He distinguishes country government from NYS government and the Federal Government. He … Continue reading
Posted in 2018, Campaigning
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Do Cornell conservatives need a moderator?
“Show up and keep an open mind, and just keep doing it. Because if you give up, that’s what I’m most afraid of,” Reed said. “I see a level of disengagement in America that’s growing, and the cynicism is growing … Continue reading
Posted in 2018, Campaigning, Constituents, Education, Reed's Views
Tagged Cornell, Cornell Sun
8 Comments
In today’s politics, truth doesn’t matter
Just tell the truth.–Chris Cuomo Truth will out.–Shakespeare President Trump, referring to truth, reportedly said: “It doesn’t matter, we won.” Trump explored this fact with his birther campaign. Repeated claims that Barack Obama wasn’t born a citizen took their toll. … Continue reading
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