Lies, damned lies, and statistics

crash data

There are three kinds of lieslies, damned lies, and statistics.–Attributed to  Benjamin Disraeli

When something seems wrong, it probably is wrong. Is it possible that air passenger fatalities dropped to zero after 2010? It isn’t likely. By excluding foreign carriers and crashes in other countries, and considering only passenger flights, Reed’s data gives the false impression that airline crashes are a thing of the past. Sadly, it just ain’t so. The list of accidents cited gives a far different impression. 

Why did Tom post this graphic on facebook?

  • To distract from health care.
  • To imply that legislation he supported reduced the rate of air fatalities to zero.
  • To set the stage for privatization of air traffic control.

Take your pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft

Posted in Congress, Political, Reed's Views | Tagged , , , , | 7 Comments

AHCA will pass

St. James

The Senate bill jettisons standards for care so thoroughly that, under its terms, it isn’t clear what it would even mean to be covered. — Amy Davidson in The New Yorker

First, remember that when a senator says he or she is opposed to the bill “in its current form,” that is code for, “change the current form, and I may no longer be opposed.”–Norm Ornstein in The Atlantic

“There has never been a rollback of basic services to Americans like this ever in U.S. history,” said Bruce Siegel, president of America’s Essential Hospitals, a coalition of about 300 hospitals that treat a large share of low-income patients. “Let’s not mince words. This bill will close hospitals. It will hammer rural hospitals, it will close nursing homes. It will lead to disabled children not getting services. . . . People will die.”

AHCA will pass. Having crippled Obamacare, the GOP has no alternative–it is no longer possible to do nothing. They have no way out–no exit strategy, no retreat path, no alternative but to forge ahead. Consequently, AHCA will pass. The GOP leadership, McConnell and Ryan, will do what it takes. They will wheedle and cajole as necessary, promising to reward some and threatening others, to get just enough votes. Republicans may worry that President Trump may badmouth their work later, but they can be sure he will sign their bill no matter how mean it is.

So what next? It is impossible to predict when either major party might attempt comprehensive health care reform again. We may see bandaids on the worst consequences of AHCA–tax credits to ease the pain is one possibility.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/07/03/the-senates-disastrous-health-care-bill

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/senate-health-care-bill-faces-serious-resistance-from-gop-moderates/2017/06/24/d6d8cf2e-584d-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html?utm_term=.6717eed9efc3

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/the-kabuki-theater-of-the-ahca/531537/

 

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This isn’t what America is supposed to be

This article was submitted by Cath Kestler, from  Silver Creek, NY

 

worriedseniorwoman_resized

When I woke up last Wednesday (June 14) to the headlines blaring about the shooting that occurred at the Republicans baseball practice I was shocked at first which then turned to sadness for all involved.  Soon my sadness turned to wonderment as I thought what kind of person could do such a heinous thing; my thoughts travelled to was this terrorism and I wondered what those people being shot at were thinking as the bullets were flying by.  As of early this morning Rep. Steve Scalise’s condition has been upgraded to serious from critical and the rest of the victims will or are recovering from their physical inflictions, but one has to wonder what kind of scarring will this hold for all involved mentally.

I’m pretty certain the shooter had suffered from some form of mental illness whether it was diagnosed or not; he obviously had abused his wife and child for I hope they are seeking counseling to reassure them that none of this is their fault.

One has to wonder what pushed this man over the edge to do what he did.  Could it have something to do with the fact that since Trump was elected the middle class and the poor have been the target for the drastic changes to carry the burden of the drastic changes upon which we must endure?  The slashes to all the programs which has been to better our existence and lend a hand to those in need in times of trouble—let me tell you trouble is looming large just over our horizon.

Are you aware that 42.5 million Americans (that’s 18.2% of all adults diagnosed) suffers from some form of mental concerns?  That equates to one in five people in the United States alone are afflicted with a wide range of mental health conditions that affect your mood, your way of thinking and your behavior; these signs and symptoms may not always be exhibited outwardly, they rear their ugly head from time to time.

I’m not saying that the Republicans are at fault for the shooting, but their hands and actions are definitely not clean by no means in this.  By calling for “unity” in this matter is late but better than never.  I harken back to the day Gabby Giffords was shot and left for dead, one of the “family” but no great strides were gained by Congress through their actions of obstructing Gabby’s pleas of sensible gun reform because I guess fear for the obstruction of the umbilical cord of funds from the NRA and 2nd Amendment rights supporters.  Yes, I said it and I’m not sorry for doing so.  I believe in the 2nd Amendment and the right to bear arms; it’s just the kind of arms you insist on bearing and your refusal for sensible gun control.  This is not meant for everyone supporting the 2nd Amendment, it is meant for those so-called “ammosexuals” the ones who insist that they have the right to own assault weapons, the ones meant strictly for the military and police.  I know I will get considerable backlash for the above statement, so be it.  #MomsDemandSensibleGunReform

Getting back to meat and potatoes of this… Exactly how much do you think one person can handle before he is pushed over the ledge?  Drastic cuts to the EPA, every cabinet person appointed to head their specific departments are there to do decimate said department and its policies, allowing the mentally ill to purchase weapons, cuts to Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, Education and the likes but spend liberally on military accoutrements I could go on and on.  When is enough, enough?

Tax cuts and deregulation abound for all the wealthy and big corporations.  It is extremely obvious that this administration and Congress led by the Republicans are totally out of control and the “man in charge” hasn’t a clue as to what is going on.  Are you fed up yet?  Frankly, I’m surprised that what transpired at that baseball field in Virginia hasn’t happened before now.  This isn’t what America is supposed to be.  We were great and can be great again, just not at the hands of the Republicans.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 20 Comments

Taxes

franklin.jpg

Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.–attributed to Benjamin Franklin, 1789 

We must work to lower property taxes in NYS.–Tom Reed, 6/20/2017

  • Tom Reed owns expensive real estate; he seeks lower property taxes.
  • Tom Reed owns a business; he seeks lower business taxes.
  • Tom Reed has a six figure salary; he seeks lower tax rates for high income taxpayers.

When Tom Reed talks taxes, one shouldn’t assume he is thinking about others; he is looking out for himself.

 

Posted in Economics, Political, Reed's Views, Taxes | 4 Comments

Make sure you can vote in the June 2018 Primary Elections

Although this article focuses on the possibility of NY-23rd having a Democratic Primary in 2018, the same concerns and laws would pertain to a  Republican Primary.

With at least four NY-23rd democrats announcing they are a candidate to run for Congress in 2018 there is a very good chance that NY-23rd will have a Democratic Primary election in June, 2018. There has been some confusion about who can and can not vote in a New York State Primary election.

The biggest take-away from the 2016 NYS Presidential Primary should be that you need to be a registered Democrat to vote in a Democratic Primary. Many wanted to express their Bernie/Hillary opinion and were not permitted to vote because they were not a registered Democrat; they may have heard that in other States’ primaries people can change their registration on the day of the primary. That is not true in New York State.

In New York you can fill out a Voter Registration form to change your party any time up to 25 days before the General Election. You can pick a form up at your County’s Board or elections, or down load a form  or request one be mailed to you, You can  mailed it or take it to your Board of Elections.  When they receive the form, they place it into a locked box that will be opened on the Tuesday after the General Election. The Board of Election staff will then process the form and change your party.

This means that a non-democrat who wants to vote in the 2018 Democratic Primary must change their party by October 13, 2017! Election Law Title III, §5-304

Most people will not be thinking about a Democratic Primary in October. We will not even know who will be running in the Primary until Spring, 2018, when the candidates pass their nominating petitions.

That is why it is important to get anybody who wants to have a voice in deciding who will be the Democratic Party’s nominee to make sure they are a registered Democrat.

Follow this link to check your information your county’s  Board of Elections has on file. (You will need to enter your birth-date.)

Let people know that the deadline to register as a democrat to vote in the June 2018 Primary is Friday, October 13.

Please note: For our Republican friends, you can substitute “Republican” every time you see  “Democrat” or “Democratic“.

This is what democracy looks like.

Posted in 2018 | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Something new on facebook

bipartisanThere is a new thing on facebook–after long periods of silence, Tom Reed is responding to constituents again. Is it because he senses widespread opposition to Republican politics?

On June 15, Tom wrote:

This (Appalachian Regional Commission) grant is great news for the project at Alfred State. The BDCC project will make the local economy stronger and bring jobs to the area: http://bit.ly/2swz3L5

A constituent questioned the impact of the grant on the environment. Tom replied:

… the funding will actually go to the BDCC program which is a facility that will be used to develop a process that extracts chemical assets from wood and uses them to manufacture energy and biofuels. It is designed to help diversify economies that have been impacted due to the reduction in the use of coal for energy. There is more information on the grant in the link. Feel free to reach out to our office for more info.

Tom ignores the fact that the Trump Administration continues to promote coal production. Many believe that burning things in whatever form is not a good for the environment.

A second constituent noted that President Trump’s budget proposal eliminates funding for the Appalachian Regional Commission. Tom replied:

 I am aware of the President’s budget proposal. I don’t support eliminating ARC. The commission does great work in our region.

Tom may not be backing away from Donald Trump yet, but here he distances himself from Trump’s budget. One wonders if he objects to anything in the budget that cuts funding for programs not targeted narrowly at NY-23.

On June 16 Tom posted a video; he wrote:

 I was on MSNBC this morning talking about bipartisanship and working across the aisle to get things done http://bit.ly/2sBb65b

A constituent suggested that talk was no good substitute for action. Tom replied:

We have to start somewhere. The Problem Solvers Caucus is taking action, though. We voted as a bloc to keep the government up and running.

Tom didn’t mention that the continuing resolution passed after the leadership made a deal with Democrats. It is anything but certain that the Problem Solvers Caucus had anything to do with that decision.

Why has Tom or his staff suddenly taken an interest in facebook? One wonders if this will continue.

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Creating Barriers to Health Care

pencil-survey_Full1Creating Barriers to Health Care Tax Credits

On Tuesday the House considered H.R. 2581, the Verify First Act. This legislation amends the Affordable Care Act as well as the American Health Care Act, making it harder for people who qualify for health insurance tax credits to receive them. AHCA hasn’t even passed the Senate, let alone become law. H.R. 2581 requires that a Social Security Number be provided by applicants so officials can first verify they are eligible to receive the tax credits. Current law requires applicants to submit either a Social Security number or an individual taxpayer identification number. This legislation lengthens the process and increases barriers to obtaining the tax credit for people who are eligible to receive them. H.R. 2581 passed on a mostly party line vote. Rep. Reed voted AYE.

The Cloward-Piven proposal was to fight poverty by encouraging people to apply for the benefits to which they were entitled. The GOP strategy is to make it as hard as possible to obtain benefits.

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll306.xml

 

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