Trump, Polls, & the NY 23rd House Race

How will Donald Trump affect the NYS Down Ballot elections?

  • problems-3Will the moderate republican voters support their controversial candidate, or will they “hold their nose” and vote democratic? or will they go Libertarian and vote for Gary Johnson? or Independent Evan McMullin?
  • Will they stay home on November 8?
  • Will endorsing Trump in March, before he was the party’s nominee (See  “A clear choice”), help or hurt Rep. Reed?
  • Will democrats stay home, or continue their routine of voting in large numbers during Presidential elections?

How the voters rect to the Trump campaign affect our congressional race? Of course we won’t really know until we analyze the November 8 voting data. In the mean time we have to read and make sense of the few political tea leafs we find in recent political articles.

It was announced on August 18 that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be coming to Buffalo (August 29) to fund raise “aimed at preserving his Republican majority in the House of Representatives”. He will then go to Rochester (August 30) for a breakfast event that “will benefit Rep. Tom Reed.” Ryan is asking for “contribution levels at $500, $1,000 and $2,700” for Reed.

We do realize that Rep. Reed has raised quite a bit more money than John Plumb, but the RNCC must feel that he needs more.  I wonder what has the Republican National Campaign Committee seen in their tea leaves?

The July 19 Quinnipac University Poll had Upstate voters favoring Trump over Clinton by 12 points, 48% to 36%.

The most recent (August 15) Siena College New York State Poll that gives the democrats a more favorable picture of Upstate voters:

  • Favorable Opinion Clinton 41%, Trump 32%
  • If the Vote was held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton 42%, Donald Trump 34%, Gary Johnson 9%, Jill Stein 9%
  • Who is most likely to become the President: Hillary Clinton 66%, Donald Trump 30%
  • Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy: Hillary Clinton 44%, Donald Trump 46%

We must realize that ‘Upstate’ is not just the NY 23rd. It includes major urban areas–Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany–usually havens for Democratic voters and none are in our district. We also must admit that Trump has had a few bad weeks, and with campaign team #3, his approval record may change.

Rep. Reed is quick to point out that Trump won the April Primary in grand fashion, and Hillary lost her primary in grand fashion. Both are true. Trump received 31,764 NY 23rd votes,  Hillary had 22,479. Besides Hillary and Trump, there were voters for the other candidates.

  • Who will receive a majority of Bernie’s 29,980 NY 23rd primary voters?
  • John Kasich, who does not support Trump, had 16,094 NY 23rd primary voters. How many of them will vote Democratic?
  • How many of  Ted Cruz’s 13,069 voters will “vote their conscience” ? Will they automatically switch to Trump?
  • How many of these voters will stay home instead of voting?

Another statistic that is looked at during a presidential election is how many voters only vote for president and not the down ballot candidates. Maybe this year many will vote for the down ballot candidate but not for president. 

John Plumb realizes that Donald Trump will have an affect on his race, but he has reminded us that  he is  “not running against Donald Trump, I’m running against Tom Reed. This district is what I’m interested in.”

 

 

 

 

Posted in Constituents | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

A clear choice.

Trump is a disruptive forceThe people’s voice will be restored. –Tom Reed

The medium is the message — Marshall McLuhan

Tom writes that for him Trump is a clear choice. That’s surprising, since even Tom admits having reservations. Tom chose to publish his reasons in a well known political blog rather than closer to home; he could have published here at newny23rd.com. Let’s take a look at his reasons:

  1. This presidential election is a choice between a successful businessman or a Washington insider who has been involved in government for her entire life.
  2.  Donald Trump was chosen to be the Republican nominee by a majority of Republican voters
  3. Trump … understands that, for too long, the average American hasn’t had a voice and feels left behind.
  4. From the many conversations I’ve had with small business owners, retirees, and rank-and-file union members, I can tell you that without a doubt, they want Donald Trump to shake up the Washington establishment.
  5. Trump is a disruptive force that will change the status quo in order to create real, lasting and positive change in Washington.
  6. Trump will join us in putting the American people first instead of Washington elites.
  7. Hillary Clinton, however, will continue President Obama’s policies which have unfairly divided our nation. We have an unstable national security position, a jobless recovery, and a healthcare system that is too expensive to manage.
  8. Clinton’s economic agenda also continues Obama’s harmful actions: high taxation, heavy regulations, and more of Washington deciding who wins and who loses.
  9. Clinton has clearly closed herself off to the American people. She is focused solely on pleasing her donors and the Washington elitist establishment.
  10. Accessibility is important to me and it is clearly important to Donald Trump who is listening to people as he travels to red states and blue states alike.
  11. Donald Trump is taking what he is hearing and working to create what people from Maine to California and Florida to Alaska are all asking for—jobs.
  12. His economic vision will create substantive change for our nation. These changes will restore American manufacturing and create opportunity for all Americans.
  13. With Trump in the White House, we will see an acceleration of this type of job-creating legislation. We will create jobs for our kids, our grandkids, and future generations.
  14. The people’s voice will be restored.

Are these believable? Are these valid reasons for Tom Reed to consider Trump a clear choice? What is the message in Tom’s decision to publish this on “The Hill” rather than in local papers?

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/291787-trump-is-the-clear-choice

 

Posted in 2016, Reed's Views | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Who is Donald, what is he?

bullWho is Silvia? what is she,

That all our swains commend her?

Holy, fair, and wise is she;

The heaven such grace did lend her,

That she might admirèd be.    — William Shakespeare

 

 

Reportedly, responsible Republicans, even Tom Reed, beg Trump to tone down his talk, yet he evidently has sided with others who urge continued outrageous behavior. Some have suggested he could do little more to hurt his cause if that were his goal. What next? Surely we have yet to see the end of this.

Who is Donald? What is he,

     That so many dare trust him?

Neither cautious nor wise is he;

     The heaven such gifts denied him;

Was it to make fools of us?

Posted in 2016, Humor, Immigration, Political, President, Racism | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Weight Around our Student’s Necks

From John Plumb on College Loans/College Debt:

student-debt“Soon, students will be heading back to school across our district. Some will be heading on to college and embark on the beginning of their professional lives. As I have traveled the district and talked to voters, one thing that is on the mind of parents and students is the cost of higher education.

College has become far too expensive. For many, that means taking on student loans that can be a crushing burden after graduation. Quality higher education should be a big stepping stone to creating a better life for our young Americans, not a big weight around their necks.

We need to make sure a quality education is within reach for all of our students, without the burden of overwhelming debt, but Congress needs to act to make that happen.

There are common sense solutions that Congress can take to make college more affordable.

First, we can tie student loan payments to a percentage of income allowing graduates to take the jobs they want to pursue, not just a job they need to take to pay off debt.

Second, when it comes to student loans, the problem is the system is rigged to benefit the big banks, who in turn support the members of Congress who are setting the rules. But if we can allow graduates to refinance their student loans, it forces the banks to compete for their business and puts more money back in the pockets of working families.

Congress can make these changes, but so far they refuse to put students and working families ahead of Wall Street. It’s time for that to change. Join me and let’s send Congress a message.”

Even though Plumb didn’t mention either the GOP or Rep. Reed’s College Cost/Loans philosophy, I feel that a review of their recent proposals would be warranted:

  • In May 2015 Rep. Reed supported the GOP  Budget proposal “that would roll back or eliminate a series of federal programs aimed at making college more affordable and student debt more manageable”
  • The proposal would eliminate guaranteed funding for Pell Grants, which provide money for the country’s poorest students to attend college
  • It also would end of subsidized Stafford loans, which the government pays the interest while the borrower is in school. These loans are aimed for lower income students

Rep. Reed, wanting to be seen as trying to lower the cost of a college education, has proposed that “universities with an endowment exceeding $1 billion to redistribute a portion of that as scholarships for students from working-class families.”  He has said that he has written a draft of the bill regulate endowments, but it has not been submitted for consideration yet.

Most colleges’ endowment funds are nowhere near $1 billion. The only college/university in the NY 23rd with more than $1 billion is Cornell. Reed’s proposal would affect a very small number of students.

Summary: Rep. Reed voted to reduce grants for students in need, and is trying to reduce college costs–but only to those who are able to attend Ivy League level Universities. Not very helpful to the average NY23rd student. This proposal indicates who he really cares about.

 

 

 

 

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Reed’s Alstom/Amtrak Votes fits a pattern

“Transportation and infrastructure improvements help build a foundation for long-term business growth and more jobs. I cannot wait to get to work on rebuilding our economy so taxpayers can see a return on their infrastructure investments.” Rep. Tom Reed, January, 20 2011

Rep. Tom Reed has a long history of telling the public that he supports a project or a bill, but when he gets to Washington he votes the other way.

  • He told those at a Town Hall Meeting in Phelps, the day after the Paris massacre that he was against putting extra restrictions on Syrian Refugee, the next week he voted to do just that.

Sometimes he votes against funding a project and then he praises it.

  • He told the parents and administrators at Happiness House, a preschool for handicap students in Geneva that how important federal funding for them and others schools in their stations AFTER he voted to reduce such funding.

This time it deals with jobs—specifically manufacturing jobs in our district. Alstom in Hornell is the largest passenger rail manufacturing facility in North America. In September 2015, Alstrom  began the steps to receive federal grants to produce the newest generation of passenger trains for Amtrak. Recently, it was announced the process has been completed. They will need 400 new jobs at Alstom, and about 350 other support jobs will be created in the area.

Although Rep. Reed feels compelled to meet with Alstom management and take credit for their successes and jobs, Senator Chuck Schumer has been the leader of this project. Matter-of-fact, Reed “was directly asked not to be present” at the September 2015 announcement by Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer.

Why? Because of Rep. Reed’s anti-Amtrak voting record.

According to John Plumb, and published by WRFALP  (Jamestown Low Power Radio):

Reed’s latest Press Release about Alstom starts with:

Tom Reed joined Senator Chuck Schumer to announce the expected completion of the final step in the federal grant funding process for Alstom in Hornell.

Reed creatively used the word “joined” to give the impression that he worked together with Schumer on this project. They didn’t. Reed tried to justify his votes to cut funding:

“We have to do it on an economic basis and support it where it makes sense, where it doesn’t we’re obviously going to be an opponent to it,” he said.

He also explained to the Hornell Evening Tribute that

“We’ve been involved in this process from the beginning, working with Alstom to make sure they had access to the folks in Washington, D.C.”

I’m assuming that “We” refer to his  Constituent Service office.

There seems to be a disconnection between what he tells us and how he votes. Reed is caught between two sets of stakeholders–

  • the NY23rd Stakeholders (constituents)–Reed tries to convince us that his votes are in our best interests. In other words he tells us what he wants us to think.
  • the inside DC Beltway Stakeholders–where he votes the way that is most profitable for himself, Republican Party, and the Party’s Donors.

What is  profitable for the Beltway Stakeholders is not always what is in his constituents best interests. Guess which way Reed votes when that conflict occurs!

 

 

 

Posted in Reed's Views, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Are these “campaign related?”

facebookAre these “campaign related?” Tom Reed must think so; they were deleted from his facebook page.

  1. Where are his tax returns?
  2. Your group called me yesterday, I just got the message. I just thought you should know I think President Obama is probably the best president ever. And, I just love the First Lady. So, you really don’t want to be calling me again.
  3. Someone’s trying to get out of the debates, complaining they are scheduled against NFL games and that “I got a letter from the NFL saying ‘This is ridiculous.'” Didn’t happen. The NFL says it sent no such letter, or any letter at all.
  4. Bill C. was disbarred from practicing law in Arkansas and was also disbarred from practicing law in front of the Supreme Court over the Lewinsky incident. He also paid a $25,000 fine over the Lewinsky incident. He also paid an $850,000 settlement over the Lewinsky incident. He was also fined $90,000 for giving false testimony in the Paula Jones case. So, Bill C,  a disbarred lawyer, a President who was fined for lying under oath, asks the American people to believe him when he says the best thing for our country is four years of his wife? Just wanted to make sure I had it right!
  5. “Russia did not seize Crimea.” — GOP campaign surrogate Boris Epshteyn on CNN yesterday singing Putin’s tune.

Number two above survived for about a week before evaporating. The following have survived until now:

  1. Tom Reed makes poor use of his office and the responsibility we’ve given him.
  2. Does Tom Reed believe the US should recognize as legitimate Russia’s seizure of the Crimea from Ukraine? In this regard, consider the interview his party leader gave today, in which he said: “[Putin’s] not going into Ukraine. Ok, just so you understand. He’s not gonna go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down.” Reminded that Russia is already in Ukraine by virtue of its seizure of Crimea, Reed’s party leader remarked: “The people of Crimea, from what I have heard, would rather be with Russia” than part of Ukraine. Music to Putin’s ears.
  3. Would you like to apologize to the Khan family and all other gold star families?
  4. Congressman Richard Hanna (R-NY), who represents New York’s 22d district, has taken a principled stand. Will Tom Reed follow his example?
  5. So now Tom Reed, you are supporting a candidate who denigrates a family who lost its son to war. Shame on you for supporting a candidate who says the kinds of things we our children would be given time out for saying. You appeal to the worst instincts around you and support any disgusting person. By the way, you are looking very good after your weight loss surgery. I’m sure you are much healthier as a result. Yet you would like to deny health care to others who are paying for yours!
  6. Once again a photo-op of Reed serving food to senior citizens after proudly cutting their food stamp benefits!

Tom Reed makes poor use of facebook; consequently, with 700,000 constituents only 4000 have bothered to like his official page. Reed’s facebook page is dull because he almost never posts anything interesting or comments himself, and because much of what he may dislike is deleted–evidently deemed campaign related.

https://www.facebook.com/RepTomReed/

 

Posted in 2016, Congress, Political | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Introducing Bill Batrowny, Candidate for 124th Assembly Seat

The following is a Press Release from the Bill Batrowny Campaign. Bill is running for the NY Assembly against incumbent Chris Friend in the 124th Assembly District (Chemung, Tioga and western part of Broome Counties).

 

BillPhotos_RedPolo1Bill Batrowny, candidate for State Assembly in the 124th Assembly District, today asks incumbent Assemblyman Chris Friend to participate in a debate that would allow voters to hear positions directly from the candidates.

“As I travel the district and listen to the community, overwhelming, people feel they aren’t being represented,” said Batrowny.  “For six years now, my opponent has been in office and we don’t have much to show in terms of tangible results. Our region is ready for a hands on leader who is willing to put party politics aside to bring results to the working men and women in the Southern Tier.”

The 124th Assembly district includes Chemung, Tioga and part of Broome Counties. Batrowny proposes a minimum of two debates; one in Chemung and Tioga counties, to ensure all voters have the opportunity to learn about the candidates and their positions.

“I am asking Assemblyman Friend to participate in at least one debate in Chemung County and one in Tioga County,” he said. “Voters deserve the opportunity to hear from the candidates and where they stand on the issues that matter. Our campaign is about standing up for the working men and women in the Southern Tier. We’re focused on creating jobs, improving education for our youth, weeding out corruption in the Capital and shifting the party politics mentality that shortchanges our communities.”

Bio: Bill Batrowny is the son of a teacher and factory worker; He is a military veteran and  lifelong resident of the Southern Tier. Bill served the community for 28 years in law enforcement, retiring as Detective Sergeant in the City of Elmira. He spent many years volunteering as a coach for the local youth sports leagues and other local organizations. Bill currently lives with his wife, Karen, in Big Flats, New York.

 

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