Note, all numbers (except percentages) are in thousands.
After the 2020 census, NY-23 shifted west, losing Tompkins and Tioga Counties and adding Erie County suburbs.
|Registration Republican advantage 2020||28 (12.1%)||+34 (12.5%)|
|Registration Republican advantage 2022||35 (12,2%)||+47 (12.9%)|
The 2022 district is more populous than the 2020 district, and the Republican advantage in registration is greater.
|Special Election (All voters)||73||39||34|
|Republican Primary Election||47||47||none|
Voters registered in the 2020 district voted in the special election; voters registered in the 2022 district voted in the primary election. The additional voters in the primary election district appears to explain the 12% difference between the Republican Vote in the two Aug. 24, 2022 elections.
The result of the special election apparently reflects the Republican advantage in registration. The Republican candidate, Sempolinski, won 39 to 34: 11.5%.
An overwhelming vote in Tompkins County for the Democratic candidate, Max Della Pia, shows how much Republicans have alienated Tompkins County voters.
I see no sign of a red wave or blue wave in NY-23: except possibly in Tompkins County, voters didn’t seem motivated by the abortion issue.