No one can predict what the future holds, but it is interesting to speculate:
In 2016, Trump won NY-23 57% to 43%. Tom Reed lagged Trump by three percent, winning over Tracy Mitrano 54% to 46%. National polls today have Joe Biden over Donald Trump 57% to 41%. If national polls apply to NY-23, Reed would have to lead Trump by 8% to be even with his opponent, Tracy Mitrano.
I am appalled by Tom Reed’s negative political advertising. With nothing to say about himself, he stoops to attacking his rival with altered images and misleading claims. There is no apparent need for Tom to go low; perhaps he delights in cruelty. It is hard to take his professed concern over domestic violence seriously, when he stoops to besmirch a woman he scarcely knows.
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New NY 23rd 
Cook and Sabato still consider NY23 solidly Republican.
It’s beginning to look like a Biden Blowout. Even Texas appears to be in play.
Maybe lightning will strike here.
One can hope.
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Having observed Reed’s treatment of his female opponents over the years (Tracy is the 4th woman to run against him), I suspect that he has an issue with strong capable women, just like his president does.
Also, he really doesn’t have much of a record to run on as far as his district is concerned. The Problem Solvers Caucus has accomplished nothing under his leadership. The poverty rate in the 23rd has been greater than the national average, even before COVID-19. Businesses and restaurants are closing, food insecurity is growing, farms are losing money, and many constituents have lost their jobs. But his big out-of-state donors and big corporations are happy with their massive tax cuts, his vote against net neutrality, and the many reversals of environmental regulations.
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