No one can predict what the future holds, but it is interesting to speculate:
In 2016, Trump won NY-23 57% to 43%. Tom Reed lagged Trump by three percent, winning over Tracy Mitrano 54% to 46%. National polls today have Joe Biden over Donald Trump 57% to 41%. If national polls apply to NY-23, Reed would have to lead Trump by 8% to be even with his opponent, Tracy Mitrano.
I am appalled by Tom Reed’s negative political advertising. With nothing to say about himself, he stoops to attacking his rival with altered images and misleading claims. There is no apparent need for Tom to go low; perhaps he delights in cruelty. It is hard to take his professed concern over domestic violence seriously, when he stoops to besmirch a woman he scarcely knows.