Arthur Ahrens of Branchport is the author of this article which is published here with permission. Views expressed by contributors are their own.
Source: WHO June 27
“We are seeing at the moment that the pandemic can’t be fought with lies and disinformation, and neither can it be with hatred and agitation…Fact-denying populism is being shown its limits.” — Angela Merkel
Saturday was a rare day for me in that I left my self-imposed isolation. My travels included Penn Yan, Naples, Canandaigua. The view everywhere was similar…people of all stages of life out and about in large numbers enjoying the beautiful summer day. The newly opened Laguna restaurant in Canandaigua had a packed parking lot, as did Wegman’s.
What a contrast to Arizona, Texas, Florida et al., where the virus is completely out of control! Restaurants and bars closing, people not using masks, unbelievable long lines for testing. 1 in 4 (!) testing positive for Covid! Not for the first time do I thank the stars to have such capable leadership in New York as Governor Cuomo and his team of experts. Their response to the disease gives me some hope that the virus will be held at bay until an effective vaccine arrives. And of course, I am SO proud of my fellow citizens! Red or blue, this could not have happened without EVERYONE’S cooperation and compliance.
Tom Reed is not satisfied and has some suggestions. OPEN THE SCHOOLS! INVESTIGATE CUOMO!
Reed takes his marching orders from Trump who is pushing hard to open the schools, just as he pushed hard to reopen the economy, ignoring the proven science that predicted a disaster. Now that the disaster has arrived, Trump, left with no options, is fighting the pandemic with lies, disinformation, hatred and agitation. Reed wants to open the schools despite science that indicates it, too, will be a disaster. He apparently shares Trump’s disregard for facts, science, and the lives of our citizens, and in this case, the lives of our children.
As to INVESTIGATE CUOMO…It is alleged that nursing home residents died from Covid-19 in unusually high numbers, so Reed wants to investigate. MEANWHILE, Reed is characteristically silent in the face of exploding pandemic cases and fatalities. Cases are now at 3,323,705 and deaths are at 137,301 and rising, EXPLOSIVELY, while Trump (and Reed) continue to ignore / override / discount accurate, predictive information from health professionals and noted epidemiologists such as Anthony Fauci.
When will we start an investigation into Trump’s incompetence in the face of this disaster? Can we expect Tom Reed to start talking about this needed investigation any time soon?
Arthur Ahrens (Richelieu/D’Artagnan/Athos/Porthos/Aramis)
Branchport, NY 7/12/2020
New NY 23rd 
Everything depends on how many each infected person infects. More than one causes disease to spread explosively; less than one and it rapidly dies out.
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Of course. R0.
Have you any idea what R0 is in Florida right now? Has anyone? They just had a record day of 15,300 cases.
Trump’s convention will begin on Monday , August 24 and will end on Thursday , August 27
Would anyone care to hazard a guess as to what Covid conditions will prevail in Jacksonville then?
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For anyone who isn’t familiar with R0 (R naught or reproduction number), here is an explanation: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number. And yes, it would be interesting to know the R0 in FL, now that FL has exceeded the numbers that we were seeing at the peak in NY.
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I don’t know how to calculate R0 for Florida. There are about 250,000 confirmed cases increasing at more than 10,000 per day. That suggests 10/250 infections per person per day. If a person is contagious for 15 days, that suggests 15/25 infections per person. If that were true, the disease would die out. There must be some mistake in the data or my reasoning. Perhaps the problem is that the disease isn’t uniform throughout the state.
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You need good data to calculate R0 for anywhere. That is problematic for Florida, since Florida cooks the coronavirus books at DeSantis’ direction. Rebeka Jones was fired from her job in charge of the state’s official Covid-19 database in May for refusing to manipulate its figures.
https://www.ocala.com/opinion/20200710/rebekah-jones-covid-19-data-reporting-by-florida-is-unreliable-raises-too-many-questions
If you want accurate data, you should go here: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
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A good article about Florida R0, which has a great explanation and states, “The R0 of coronavirus is usually estimated to be somewhere between two and three.”
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Forgot the link in my 3:11 message.
https://www.floridatoday.com/pages/interactives/news/coronavirus-covid-spread-quickly-how-to-slow-it-down/
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I believe this is true–as the number of cases reported daily in Florida (now around 15,000) doubled in the last two weeks, it will very likely double again in the next two weeks
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