Covid 19 tests per capita by county
| County | Population | Tests | Positive | Tests per capita % | Positive per capita % |
| Allegeny | 46k | 333 | 29 | 0.7 | 0.06 |
| Cattaraugus | 76k | 439 | 34 | 0.6 | 0.04 |
| Chautauqua | 126k | 585 | 25 | 0.5 | 0.02 |
| Chemung | 83k | 852 | 71 | 1.0 | 0.09 |
| Ontario | 109k | 856 | 67 | 0.8 | 0.07 |
| Schuyler | 17k | 177 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.04 |
| Seneca | 34k | 239 | 18 | 0.7 | 0.05 |
| Steuben | 95k | 888 | 154 | 0.9 | 0.16 |
| Tioga | 48k | 402 | 30 | 0.8 | 0.06 |
| Tompkins | 102k | 2610 | 117 | 2.6 | 0.11 |
| Yates | 24k | 135 | 8 | 0.6 | 0.03 |
Data from April 17, 2020
More information can be found here:
https://pad.human.cornell.edu/papers/vulnerability.cfm
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3
New NY 23rd 
Thank you for the information.
Researchers at Harvard University state that the level of testing to safely reopen the country is 152 tests per 100,000 people
.
Using figures from the NYS-Covid19-Tracker for April 18,2020 I get:
Daily Tests per 100,000 people by county for April 18,2020
County Tests per 100k % recommended tests (Target = 100%)
Allegeny 32.61 21.45
Cattaraugus 19.74 12.98
Chautauqua 17.46 11.49
Chemung 38.55 25.36
Ontario 30.28 19.92
Schuyler 23.53 15.48
Seneca 5.88 3.87
Steuben 96.84 63.71
Tioga 33.33 21.93
Tompkins 43.14 28.38
Yates 116.67 76.75
Clearly, NY 23 has much room for improvement.
Also, I am curious as to the unusually high (though still inadequate) level of testing in Steuben and Yates.
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One third of participants in Massachusetts study tested positive for coronavirus
FOX NEWS!
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0OnEPifn?s=a3&pd=04WeueM8
Read the whole piece, but here is a sample:
“….30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing.”
and all the more reason for much more testing!
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Hope this formats properly and is more readable
County Tests per 100k % Recommended
taken on 4/17/2020 # of Daily Tests
Allegany 32.61 21.45
Catttaraugus 19.74 12.98
Chatauqua 17.46 11.49
Chemung 28.55 25.36
Ontario 30.28 19.92
Schuyler 23.53 15.48
Steuben 96.84 63.71
Tioga 33.33 21.93
Tompkins 43.14 28.38
Yates 116.67 76.75
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The MA study raises questions:
The NY-23 testing data given show that Steuben County reported 92 tests on April 17, which is 97 tests per 100,000 people. This number of tests is 64% of the recommended 150 per 100,000 daily. The number of tests in Steuben may be high because they have a big problem with fatalities; Yates may report a high number of tests because they are proactive; only 5% in Yates County tested positive.
Testing in NY-23 is not likely random. If a third were infected hereabouts, how is it that only 16% in Steuben County tested positive, especially when those tested were likely tested for a reason rather than randomly?
What else can we infer from the data?
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Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.. — D. Rumsfeld
W.H.O. declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020.
To deal with a problem effectively, one must know everything possible about the problem.
Therefore, the only thing I can reliably infer from the MA data is that on April 19, 2020, fully 79 days into the pandemic, we cannot properly respond to the Covid19 pandemic because Trump’s failure in providing reliable testing means that the true scope of the problem remains hidden.
It does not appear that this lack of testing will be remediated soon. So we will continue to deal blindly with known unknowns and the difficult unknown unknowns.
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The MA sample wasn’t a random sample of the people of Massachusetts–it was a sample of some people on the street in Chelsea on that day who were willing to take the test. Still, the result is surprising. The test used is not likely the same test as used elsewhere; that could be significant.
One obstacle to a rational response, is widespread disagreement among Federal Government officials, state governors and legislators, and among the people. Laxity in some states affects the rest, just as carelessness among neighbors endangers all.
Some examples of irrationality:
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Your bullet list appears to have one common source.
Here’s something I stumbled across today:
“There are not — there must not be — two sides to covid-19. This crisis is not a chance to “own the libs,” nor is it the moment to indulge one’s Trump hatred. The duty of every citizen of every stripe is to seek in good faith the earliest containment of the disease, the safest restoration of community life and the swiftest return to economic health, regardless of credit or blame.”
I think that is a terrific statement!
We currently have a president who never acts in good faith and whose only interest is personal gain. To that end he seeks to receive credit from everyone and blame from no one. He acknowledges no responsibility for any failures, seeking instead to shift blame for his incompetence anywhere else. Somehow this plays well with 40% of the citizenry, creating chaos when unity is necessary. This breeds irrationality and endangers everyone’s life, including those lives of the 40%.
Since we aren’t dealing rationally with Covid19, I see no hope that we will be able to deal rationally with bigger problems such as Global Warming / Climate Change. Our goose, as they say, is cooked!
Very glad to be closer to the end than to the beginning.
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I was puzzled at first by the reference to a common source; I suppose it is DJT. I’m not sure he can be blamed for everything, the activities of neo-nazis for example. Trump is more of a follower than a leader, he seems to get his ideas from the internet–there may be other evil actors at work.
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Trump gets his ideas elsewhere, and has a very short attention span. He acts as both a focus and an amplifier for whatever crackpot idea / bright shiny object catches his attention.
In that sense, he can’t be blamed as the original source. He is, however, the megaphone that allows fringe ideas to reach millions of impressionable people, with his tacit approval and endorsement. His bully pulpit allows him to spread nonsense in the service of his personal ambition.
Each of your bullet points cover statements / actions by Trump. Hence one common source.
I agree with your statement that he can’t be blamed for the actions of neo-nazis. The growth of the movement and its incremental acceptance are a result of his statements. ‘Very nice people on both sides’, indeed. He’s responsible for emboldening the movement, and in that sense is responsible for any reprehensible future actions they perform.
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So who is to blame for instigating anti-social activities: Putin, ISIS, Kim, the mafia, tax protesters, Birchers, the Koch brothers, the klan, FOX, Breitbart, libertarians, nativists, poorly educated white males, racists, misogynists, disgruntled sports fans,many of these, or is it ordinary Americans frustrated with the status quo?
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Nice philosophical conundrum.
I myself am pretty focused on the earliest containment of Covid19, the safest restoration of community life and the swiftest return to economic health. All else is simply noise.
To that end, I try to identify impediments to that cause. Two are obvious…testing and Trump.
The sheer lack of reliable testing is a real and huge problem. As shown by the Fox piece. As noted by expert epedimiologists (except Birx, who now appears to be in the bag for Trump). As demonstrated by governors in the east, midwest, and west.
As to the president…. Here are some of his quotes about the virus:
1/22/2020…..“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
2/10/2020…..“Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
2/24/2020…..“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
2/27/2020…..“It’s going to disappear.”
3/10/2020…..“We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
3/15/2020…..“This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
A month later, nearly 40,000 dead. If we are indeed somewhere at the midpoint, then the butcher’s bill will be 80,000 souls lost. Lost to something “we have tremendous control over.”
How is it reasonable to expect that such a benighted person is capable of leading us out of the crisis we are in?
As to the rest, I’ll leave philosophy to the philosophers.
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Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
Wall Street Journal 4/19/2020 4:34pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-testing-hampered-by-disarray-shortages-backlogs-11587328441
The buck stopped with Truman. And Eisenhower. And Kennedy…and so on.
Until 2020…………
3/16/2020 President DJT: ‘I don’t take responsibility at all’
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Possible topics for future discussions:
1. $350 billion was set aside for small businesses. It has been a fiasco. Small businesses that needed money couldn’t get it. Multi million dollar businesses could get it. $20 million went to Ruth’s Chris Steak House, which has 150 locations and a market value of a quarter-billion dollars. Shake Shack, which has a market value of more than $1.5 billion, got $10 million in funds. Incompetent or Corrupt? Were small businesses in NY23 locked out? What is Tom Reed’s opinion?
2. One of the juiciest contracts for the production of new Emergency Equipment was awarded, without bidding, to Panthera Worldwide LLC. They got $55 million. There are just a few problems with this, though. First, Panthera’s actual business is described as “tactical training,” and there’s no evidence they have ever manufactured anything, much less medical equipment. Second, they filed for bankruptcy last fall, and listed liabilities of—wait for it—about $50 million. Third, consistent with the bankruptcy, the firm doesn’t have any actual employees, and hasn’t since 2018. Incompetent or Corrupt?
3. It has been nearly a month since the coronavirus task force promised 27 million tests by the end of March. To date, only about 4 million people have been successfully tested. Incompetent??
4. During Monday’s coronavirus task force briefing, Trump adjusted downward his target for the number of deaths from the virus, saying we are currently headed toward “50 or 60,000 people.” As of yesterday, the number of deaths from the virus stood at 42,514, averaging 2260 deaths per day since April 7, 2020. Is Trump’s statement reasonable?
More suggestions to come….
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I have been noting data on US deaths:
Deaths have been doubling weekly since April 6. As deaths lag infections, this trend will likely continue. Thus, we should expect 80,000 by next Monday and 160,000 by the following Monday.
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Your numbers are close to mine and hold if the mitigation efforts fail. Who knows, with states reopening?
If mitigation efforts continue to be effective, perhaps we have reached a plateau and should reasonably expect ~56000 on 4/27 and ~70000 on 5/4.
It is likely that the total deaths will exceed Trump’s prediction.
Why does he persist making these optimistic forecasts?
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More suggestions:
5. Are comparisons to Biden/Obama’s H1N1 Valid?
Trump says, “Biden/Obama were a disaster in handling the H1N1 Swine Flu. Polling at the time showed disastrous approval numbers. 17,000 people died unnecessarily and through incompetence! ”
Here’s a comparison of the first 86 days of the 2009 swine flu in the United States and first 86 days of the 2020 covid-19 outbreak.
Swine flu
April 15, 2009 — first infection detected
July 10, 2009 — 37,246 cases, 211 deaths
Covid-19
Jan. 20, 2020 — first infection detected
April 15, 2020 — 654,425 cases, 32,900 deaths
Is Trump wise to keep referring to the 2009 Swine Flu?
6. Where is hydroxychloroquine in Trump /TrumpWorld/ FoxNewsWorld?
A couple of weeks ago, it was a miracle drug, touted heavily by Trump and his Trumpets at Fox. Trump scarcely mentioned hydroxychloroquine last week — if at all — and refrained entirely from invoking the drug during White House briefings on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Why?
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I hope you are right. However, people who will die in the next two weeks are already ill, cases may be leveling off in NYS but are increasing elsewhere, and states which aren’t taking precautions may repeat New York’s experience.
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I hope Trump is right.
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7. Has anybody noticed that the pro-life party doesn’t mind if a few people die as long as the economy is reopened? Has anybody noticed that the anti-government protesters believe that the government has no business telling them what they can do with their bodies?
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8. Trump (the Company) Asks Trump (the Administration) for Hotel Relief.
President Trump’s signature hotel in the nation’s capital wants a break on the terms of its lease. Like most hotels, it is now nearly empty and looking to cut costs because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The landlord determining the fate of the request is Mr. Trump’s own administration.
Does anyone else have difficulty with this?
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Additional candidate for topic #1:
Hallador Energy, based in Indiana has several hundred more employess than the standard firm awarded money under the $2 trillion stimulus bill.
It has at least two important ties to the Trump administration: Scott Pruitt, the former Environmental Protection Agency administrator, was hired last year to lobby for the publicly traded firm in Indiana; and the company’s former government relations director now works at the Energy Department.
Incompetent or Corrupt?
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Let’s close the day with even MORE GOOD NEWS!
Topic 9:
Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday that a second wave of the novel coronavirus will be far more dire because it is likely to coincide with the start of flu season.
“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.
Having two simultaneous respiratory outbreaks would put unimaginable strain on the health-care system, he said.
Groundhog day redux. It will be a long time before we are out of the woods.
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Regarding 8, 9, 10:
DJT made the emoluments clause moot when he disregarded it from the beginning and got away with it. I remember an elaborate charade–he said he had hired a law firm to keep careful watch over his administration. The were to blow the whistle at the slightest sign of a violation. I don’t believe they were ever heard from again after that.
Corrupt.
We could continue to use caution, we could get flu shots, but we are a strange people, free to be foolish, to put profit before life, to see vaccines as dangerous, to demonstrate against responsible government with signs decrying abortion, with swastikas and klan symbols, claiming a creator-endowed right to spread disease.
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There is an effective and long running propaganda campaign which denigrates government, academia, science and the media. After decades of indoctrination, a great many of our fellow citizens are truly members of a cult, willing to be fed ‘facts’ and act on those ‘facts’ ‘patriotically’.
Today more than ever, we need government, academia, science and the media to properly respond to the covid19.
Something that the cult will naturally never accept.
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found on the web:
I’d like to emphasize a point that is not being covered well in the media and I believe is the crux of the matter: One reason that COVID-19 is different that the flu is that some of those who get COVID-19 and survive end up with permanent organ damage. And that’s not just the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions. As an anecdotal example: in the area where I live, we have seen only a handful of confirmed cases (yet), but an otherwise healthy young man who came down with COVID-19 is now in need of a heart transplant. Those long term effects are why this is not “just another flu.”
Furthermore, the reason why social distancing is important is not because of the death rate, it’s that 10-20% of all those infected with COVID-19 victims require hospitalization. Those who survive spend more time in the hospital, consuming even more health care resources.
To be clear, I’m not trying to say that the COVID-19 death rate is not a horrible thing. But it is the 9-19% of the hospitalized who survive that will overwhelm the health care system if COVID-19 spreads unchecked. A hospital has only so many beds (even with them in the hallways), and doctors have limits to the number of patients at a time they may have under their care. Furthermore, when emergency rooms and ICUs get filled up, people with other illnesses in need of critical care will get turned away. By definition, ICU patients cannot be moved or taken off care, the patient stays as long as necessary. So we risk having an increased number of deaths from non-COVID-19 critically ill patients who would otherwise get treatment.
Almost all of the discussion I’ve seen in the media has been on the death rate. And that number has been weaponized by those trying to argue against social distancing by claiming that it’s not such a big number. Perhaps if the messaging were more about the 10-20% hospitalization rate and the permanent damage, we could shut down that argument, and the public would have a better appreciation of the impact.
And finally, I’d like to emphasize that with influenza, unlike COVID-19, we have: (1) a rapid (15 minute), readily available test to identify infection, (2) vaccines to reduce infection rate, and (3) a treatment (Tamiflu) to reduce the severity and duration of infection. We have none of those for COVID-19, and don’t really know when we will.
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found on the web
I have been wondering for some time now why the likes of Pat Robertson, Kenneth Copeland, and Benny Hinn, have not gone to the hospitals and cure the patients there of COVID-19, if they truly believe in their healing powers.
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found on the web:
The NFL draft is the perfect sports metaphor for the current pandemic and the debate over reopening the economy. After all, every year rich white conservatives reap tremendous profits by endangering the health and safety of their largely African-American work force.
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General BoneSpurs exhibiting his medical knowledge:
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