Did NY-23 candidates do as expected?

With some assumptions, I have computed the expected vote for Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano. The actual vote is strikingly similar to the expected vote.

Assumptions:

  • Republicans, Conservatives, and those registered with the Independence Party prefer the Republican Party candidate.
  • Democrats and those registered with other parties prefer the Democratic Party candidate.
  • Half of those not registered with a party prefer a Democrat and half a Republican.
  • Half of non-voters prefer a Democrat and half a Republican.

From the first New NY 23rd article cited:

2018 Party Enrollment Data

 

Democrats and Others: 144 thousand

Republicans, Conservatives and Independence Party: 194 thousand

No Party: 93 thousand

Fifty-one percent of registered voters cast a ballot, so the expected votes for Democratic and Republican candidates can be estimated as the sum of registered voters plus half the unregistered voters times the percentage of registered voters who cast a ballot: 51%:

Expected vote totals:

  • Democrat: (144+46)*0.51 = 97 thousand
  • Republican: (194+46)*0.51 = 122 thousand

Actual vote totals from the second New NY 23rd article cited:

  • Tracy Mitrano: 100 thousand
  • Tom Reed: 122 thousand

The correspondence between the expectation and the vote totals is striking; here are some possible conclusions:

  • Party affiliation is significant.
  • Both candidates did about as expected.
  • There was no “blue wave” in 2018 in NY-23.

Based on these results, the idea that either candidate did much better or worse than expected is false.

https://newny23rd.com/2018/04/06/how-republican-is-the-ny-23rd/

https://newny23rd.com/2018/11/07/ny-23-election-results/

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About whungerford

* Contributor at NewNY23rd.com where we discuss the politics, economics, and events of the New New York 23rd Congressional District (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, (Eastern) Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben,Tioga, Tompkins, and Yates Counties) Please visit and comment on whatever strikes your fancy.
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2 Responses to Did NY-23 candidates do as expected?

  1. josephurban says:

    Good point. This district is structurally biased toward the GOP candidate, no matter who it is. It takes a real massive shift in the swing voters to elect a Dem. Somehow attracting more of the non-affiliated voters is necessary.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. whungerford says:

    That there was little movement among unaffiliated voters is surprising and disappointing given what happened elsewhere, in Orange County, CA for example. Perhaps any distaste for DJT among swing voters which might have hurt Tom Reed was countered by Reed’s claim to be a “bipartisan problem solver.”

    Liked by 1 person

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