With some assumptions, I have computed the expected vote for Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano. The actual vote is strikingly similar to the expected vote.
- Republicans, Conservatives, and those registered with the Independence Party prefer the Republican Party candidate.
- Democrats and those registered with other parties prefer the Democratic Party candidate.
- Half of those not registered with a party prefer a Democrat and half a Republican.
- Half of non-voters prefer a Democrat and half a Republican.
From the first New NY 23rd article cited:
Democrats and Others: 144 thousand
Republicans, Conservatives and Independence Party: 194 thousand
No Party: 93 thousand
Fifty-one percent of registered voters cast a ballot, so the expected votes for Democratic and Republican candidates can be estimated as the sum of registered voters plus half the unregistered voters times the percentage of registered voters who cast a ballot: 51%:
Expected vote totals:
- Democrat: (144+46)*0.51 = 97 thousand
- Republican: (194+46)*0.51 = 122 thousand
Actual vote totals from the second New NY 23rd article cited:
- Tracy Mitrano: 100 thousand
- Tom Reed: 122 thousand
The correspondence between the expectation and the vote totals is striking; here are some possible conclusions:
- Party affiliation is significant.
- Both candidates did about as expected.
- There was no “blue wave” in 2018 in NY-23.
Based on these results, the idea that either candidate did much better or worse than expected is false.