Kevin Hassett on lying with statistics

CEA chairman Hassett says 2016 election was a turning point; you can’t believe him.

lie with statistics

Horizontal and Vertical scale matters

Kevin Hassett unveiled a series of charts that appear to show a surge in corporate investment, blue-collar jobs, business startups and small-business optimism after the election two years ago.–, MarketWatch

I watched Kevin Hassett explain these charts which illustrate how a happy-go-lucky CEA Chair lies. Please refer to the White House release of Hassett’s charts.

Hassett’s first three charts refer to information from  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). This is not a reliable source; I will say no more about these first three charts. (NFIB is often mentioned in support of Tom Reed.)

fredgraphThe next three charts use data from the reliable Bureau of Economic Analysis. The original chart for “real private nonresidential fixed investment” is shown at the left. Compare this with Hassett’s chart for  “real private nonresidential fixed investment” which shows a marked change on the day of the election. It is a clear example of lying with statistics. Hassett has carefully chosen the horizontal and vertical scales to make a misleading point. One should be surprised by the marked change in the data if nothing else; economic data seldom shows such marked changes if ever.

Hassett also misleads by choosing trend lines based on a short section of only part of the data, which is again unfair. The last three charts are much less striking than the charts featured at the top of the page; they are perhaps reliable, but again the trend lines are chosen to falsely emphasize the Trump Administration’s message. Please don’t be taken in by this administration’s lies.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-white-house-economic-adviser-credits-trump-for-boom-disses-obama-era-2018-09-10

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Press-Briefing-9.10.18-CEA_Final.pdf

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/National_Federation_of_Independent_Business

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About whungerford

* Contributor at NewNY23rd.com where we discuss the politics, economics, and events of the New New York 23rd Congressional District (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, (Eastern) Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben,Tioga, Tompkins, and Yates Counties) Please visit and comment on whatever strikes your fancy.
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4 Responses to Kevin Hassett on lying with statistics

  1. Steven Beikirch says:

    In 1999 Hassett co-authored a book titled; “Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market.” It predicted the Dow rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Anonymous says:

    We have been in a Bull market slightly longer than normal. Most stock prices are way too over valued. What we are experiencing is unusual. There has to be as market correction especially in the tech sector.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. whungerford says:

    The DOW today is near 26,000. We should have an economic adviser who is more than an overly exuberant toady.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. josephurban says:

    The DOW is not the economy. People have become so enamored of stock market quotes that have forgotten that the DOW represents only a portion of the economic picture. One issue to consider: Why are investor profits high? Does it have anything to do with keeping labor costs low? Does it have anything to do with deregulation which will lead to environmental damage? Think about who ALWAYS picks up the tab for environmental clean ups? How will impact the economy in the future? The economy is complex and has many interrelated components. It is not the DOW.

    Liked by 1 person

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