Who will vote in the June 26 Democratic Primary?

Primaries elections are strange political devices that can be awful hard to predict. Especially in a district that where a primary is rare. Especially with a party which where a primary is rare.  Especially when the race has five qualified candidates.

For a campaign which arguably started more than a year ago, a majority of the democrats in the district can not name any of the candidates. Yes campaigns will be in high gear this final week before the election and try to change that:

  • Be prepared for knocks on the door.
  • Be prepared for phone calls–some with a real person who can answer your questions, and robo calls where you can’t.
  • Be prepared for slick mailing listing endorsements and websites.

Don’t expect a high turnout. According to the NYS Board of Elections only 37.5% of the democrats in the NY23rd voted in the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary. Voters will not come out on June 26 unless they really believe that one candidate is decidedly stronger than the other four. Many newspapers articles have pointed out that the candidates’ views on the issues are very similar. That means it is not the message that is important, but the messenger.

It is hard to read the political tea leaves. Is the number of signatures on the nominating petitions an important factor? Is where the candidate lives in the district an important factor? Are the endorsements the candidate receives an important factor? Probably yes, yes and yes.

How many of us believes that the winner of the primary will get 50.1% of the vote? I hope that happens, because if winner received only 30% of the vote then 70% of the voters voted for one of the four losers.  Will the losing candidates, after a long campaign, help the winning candidate defeat Tom Reed? We should remember that Leslie Danks Burke, right after Nate Shinagawa defeated her in the 2012 Democratic Primary, went to Nate’s campaign office and phoned constituents asking for donations for Nate. Having the four defeated candidates hit the phones on June 28 would be a signal to all voters of the NY23rd.

After the Primary, the 19 week real campaign begins. We’ve only just begun.

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About pystew

Retired Teacher, political science geek, village trustee. I lean a little left, but like a good political discussion. My blog, the New NY 23rd (http://newny23rd) is about discussing the issues facing the people of our new congressional district. Let's hear all sides of the issues, not just what the candidates want us to hear.
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14 Responses to Who will vote in the June 26 Democratic Primary?

  1. whungerford says:

    In 2012, Nate Shinagawa did get a majority of the primary votes cast–55%. Only 10,000 people voted in the primary, while 280,000 voted in the general election.

    Like

  2. Rynstone says:

    I can’t vote in this election but if I could I would vote for ? I just do not know. I just don’t think there is one fiscal conservative among the group.
    My best guess based on what I have seen and read is that Tracy Mitrano wins Tompkins, Max Della Pia wins Tioga County and Dr. Linda Andrei wins the primary.

    I just do not think any of these candidates will defeat Congressman Tom Reed.

    I would love to see a poll for the NY State Governor’s race. Lots of announced candidates to discuss and choose from.

    Like

  3. josephurban says:

    Reed will be very hard to dislodge from this position no matter who wins. I am leaning towards Mitrano but all the candidates have better ideas and more integrity than Reed.

    Like

  4. Rynstone says:

    This will hurt Tracy Mitrano’s chances of winning

    Like

  5. Rynstone says:

    When will people learn that “dirty” campaign hijinks only hurts the candidate and the campaign !?!?!?

    Like

  6. whungerford says:

    The Mitrano for Congress campaign has recently learned that two of its unpaid volunteers, acting on their own volition, removed Tom Reed’s “Extreme Ithaca Liberal” signs from public property.

    Mitrano for Congress will never condone any of its volunteers taking other candidates’ yard signs. The individuals involved are no longer associated with the campaign.

    http://www.ithaca.com/news/updated-reed-campaign-accuses-mitrano-volunteers-of-stealing-yard-signs/article_a84ac516-7004-11e8-beef-ffcfa2e3ddf5.html

    Like

  7. whungerford says:

    If Tom Reed puts his signs on public property, and the authorities don’t remove them, I favor direct public action.

    Like

  8. pystew says:

    Rynstone mentioned Tompkins, and Tioga counties. Tompkins has the highest number of Democrats ~ 28k, (21% of the NY23 Dems) and might have the highest voting rate, but four candidates have some claim to Tompkins, or lives near it. It should be close. Della Pia should have the advantage in Tioga (6k, 4.7%). Rynstone didn’t talk about the two western giant counties…Chautauqua (25k, 19.5%) and Cattaraugus (12k, 9.3%). If they go big for favourite son, Eddie, the Tompkins County winner’s lead could be wiped out. might wipe .The other counties with more than 10k Democrats, Chemung (15k, 11.7%) and Steuben, (14k, 10.8%), might crown the winner if they throw mainly for one or two candidates. If it is really close, the smaller counties could play an important part in this race.

    I think it is going to close. Another every vote counts race.

    William said that 10 k turned out in 2012. We need to wait and see how many make it out on June 26.

    Like

  9. pystew says:

    Rynstone, you do understand that there are more Democrats in NYC than Republicans in NYS.

    Like

  10. pystew says:

    Rynstone, you do understand that tere are more Democrats in NYC than Republicans in NYS.

    Like

  11. whungerford says:

    It is unlikely that any of the five candidates will receive a majority of the votes. This is a case where a “ranked-choice” voting system might be good. Second and third choices might be crucial; voters could rank their local favorite first and another candidate a strong second.

    Like

  12. josephurban says:

    As we all know, the Reed team will make any claims to throw mud. There is a reason Reed was Trump’s campaign chairman is this area. Birds of a feather. The mud will flow.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Robusta says:

    From Seneca. My vote will be for either Max Della Pia or Eddie Sundquist. I don’t think the sign flap will affect Mitrano either way. Although not my choice I thik she will take the primary.

    Like

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