How Republican is the NY-23rd?

 

After Nate Shinagawa almost defeated Tom Reed in 2012, NY-23rd democrats hopefully looked forward to the next election. Then, in 2014, the anti-SAFE Act energy sparked the intensity of the GOP voters, and dampened Democratic voters’ spirits. In 2016 the Trump Campaign had the same effect. In both elections, many voters of the other parties, or not in any party (aka “Blanks”) were either caught up with the anti-SAFE/Trump bandwagon, or, sat home on election night.

These elections gave NY23rd-ers reasons to feel overwhelmed by republicans. Yes, there are more Republican voters than Democratic voters in our district, but the difference might not as large as some people think. The chart below show the number of voters registered for each party (or no party) as of November 1 2017. (note:the Other Parties include Green, Working Families, Women Equality Party, and Reform Parties). As you can see,  Republicans have just over  5% more voters than the Democrats.

2018 Party Enrollment Data

 

Is it difficult to overcome a 5.2% enrollment deficit?

It’s not easy to overcome a 5.2% enrollment deficit, but it is not impossible.

Let me take you back to 2008.

Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Schuyler, Yates, and parts of Monroe and Ontario Counties made up the NY-29 Congressional District. Registered Republicans were 42.1% of the voters; Democrats had 30.4%.  Even with more than an 11% disadvantage, Democrat Eric Mass defeated incumbent Republican Randy Kuhl, 51% to 49% (5,330 votes). Of course the 2008 election and the 2018 election are not parallel; It was Massa’s second time he ran against Kuhl and the Democratic community was super-motivated since they wanted to replace Bush with Obama. But the fact is  democrats overcame a 11% voter disadvantage in 2008; they can overcome a 5.2% disadvantage in 2018.

There is no question that since the 2016 election, voter intensity  has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats. Both parties need to convince the unaffiliated  (“Blank”) voters and those in the Independence Party  (and others–Green, Working Families, Women Equality Party, Conservative and Reform Parties) to vote for them in order to win. In other words, for the Democratic nominee for Congress to win in November, their campaign and supporters need to work hard to get their party voters, as well as a majority of the other voters, engaged and to the polls.

The first step is getting a large number of voters to the June 26 Democratic Primary. The voters are more apt to participate in the Primary if they are well-informed about the  candidates.

We can still register new voters for the Primary. June 1 is the last day for new voters to register to vote in person at the County’s Board of Elections. It is also the last day to mail  a voter registration form and it must be received by Board of Elections by June 6.

Winning in November will not be easy, but it is not impossible.

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About pystew

Retired Teacher, political science geek, village trustee. I lean a little left, but like a good political discussion. My blog, the New NY 23rd (http://newny23rd) is about discussing the issues facing the people of our new congressional district. Let's hear all sides of the issues, not just what the candidates want us to hear.
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50 Responses to How Republican is the NY-23rd?

  1. David Eric Cummins says:

    I thought you needed to register before the previous year’s general election to be able to vote in the primary in NY? Did they change that or was I misinformed?

    Like

  2. pystew says:

    That is confusing.

    The October 13, 2017 date was the cut off to change your party affiliation. For example if you were registered as a conservative, and wanted to vote in a republican primary, that was the last day for you to change to be a republican.

    The June 1 deadline is for new voters (those turning 18 or those who moved into the NY23rd, or those who for any reason not registered before) to register in time to vote in the June 26 Primary. The last day to be registered for the November General Election will be October 12. The NYS 2018 Political Calendar go to http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/law/2018PoliticalCalendar.pdf

    Liked by 1 person

  3. josephurban says:

    Your numbers a slightly misleading. The GOP usually gets the endorsement of both the Conservative Party and the Independence Party while the Dems usually get the Working Family Party endorsement. So Reed’s built in advantage is much higher.

    In 2016 Reed got 137,000 votes on the GOP line, but added 24,000 combined on the Reform, Conservative and Independence Party lines.Plumb had 106,000 on the Dem line and 12,000 on the Working Family line. So Reed won quite easily, by 33,000 votes. Out of 296,000 votes cast.

    Once Reed starts throwing the mud we shall see how much sticks.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. whungerford says:

    I wonder if this year the Conservative Party might back another candidate.

    Like

  5. josephurban says:

    I think Reed will get the Conservative line. He voted for the massive 1.4 trillion dollar tax giveaway to the wealthy. Which is what conservatives have been trying to do for the last 10 years. And he voted against the budget that gave help to the poor and middle class. Another conservative value.Of course, in his campaign he will claim he supports Social Security, Medicare, etc. while voting to defund and privatize them.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Steve Beikirch says:

    The number of registered Democrats at this point is not a concern except for primary turnout. What we should be focusing on is a massive get out the vote and new voter registration campaign. During the 2016 election according to the NY Board of Elections 279,634 votes were cast for John Plumb and Tom Reed. This means only 65% of registered voters cast a ballot for Congress in the 23rd. Democrats have an advantage because we have a large pool of non-voting registered voters and swing voters to work with. Do you think Reed is going to get any democrats to vote for him? I don’t think so.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Patricia Locke says:

    I, as a dedicated petitioner for Max Della Pia believe that whoever the Democrats choose in the June 26 primary we can and will defeat Tom Reed. I have spoken to many including Republicans who feel it is time for Reed to go. My hope is on Max to take on Reed and his special interest groups. It is necessary for all registered Dems to volunteer their time and help get out the vote this time around. It’s that important for our district, our country, our democracy!

    Like

  8. pystew says:

    Thanks Patricia.

    The phrase that makes me moan is “I hope Reed loses this year.” I know they mean well, but it takes more than ‘Hope”. There are a lot of ways to help a campaign, writing letters, making phone calls, getting list of registered voters in your voting district and visit them, become an “expert” on one of the issues from the new Tax Plan to Social Security to Trade War and be ready to discuss it. Each county has a Democratic Committee, and there are a lot of grassroots groups throughout the district, and the winner of the Primary will have a need for volunteers. Just to note there are 19 weeks from the Primary to the General Election. If a person contacts 10 voters a week, that’s 190 contacts being made. If 10 people in each of the 11 counties make 10 contacts a week we are talking of 20,900 contacts!

    Liked by 1 person

  9. This election and the 2020 election provides a unique opportunity for Democrats to persuade Republicans to vote for Democrats in order to save the soul of the Republican Party. Let me make a slight correction to the previous sentence. There are three absolutely MUST READ articles written by Republicans and nonpartisans that, taken together, provide a persuasive case that Republicans should vote against the Republican party in order to save it.

    I put an article on my website citing the most important passages from these three articles. I’d love to see these articles get LOTS of publicity. It should be considered professional negligence if Democratic candidates don’t mention these articles during the campaign

    .Here is a link to the articles I am referring to.

    http://themessinglink.com/ThreeEssentialArticles

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Steve Beikirch says:

    Robin, thanks for posting.

    Like

  11. Gary McCaslin says:

    and thanks to pystew for this ongoing informative conversation.

    Like

  12. Gary McCaslin says:

    and thanks to pystew for this ongoing informative conversation.

    Like

  13. mjw1970 says:

    The county to keep in mind is Chautauqua. With its large population and two cities with many democrats, if we can get the vote out there, it will be a great step towards victory. It is imperative to concentrate resources there.

    Like

  14. josephurban says:

    Instead of running an “anti-Reed” campaign I hope the eventual candidate runs a very positive “what we need to do ” campaign. Don’t get into mud slinging with Reed. He is a master of it. Just point out his actual VOTES over the last few years and his unquestioning support of the most corrupt president ever. Bring up his voting record over and over and over.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. whungerford says:

    Was this a good idea in retrospect?
    https://mayicallyoutom.blog/2016/12/27/a-gift-for-you/

    Like

  16. whungerford says:

    The phrase that makes me moan is “Reed is history, bye bye Tom.” Make it happen, then celebrate.

    Like

  17. Off year congressional elections produce a different electorate than presidential year congressional elections. People need to keep that in mind and plan accordingly. Re: Chataqua, their Democratic turnout in the fall 2017 elections was about 10% lower than Republican turnout. Unless that improves whoever wins the primary has a problem. Also, Cuomo is on the ballot this fall. That will not be helpful to upstate Democrats. Keep hope alive but be realistic.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. pystew says:

    Jason, We are working all year, or longer, to get more people involved in the election process, and having multiple candidates running against Rep. Reed only helps (except the lack of donations hurts, but should increase after the Primary). With crowds at Town Hall meetings, rallies, letters in the papers, Meet & Greets and not to mention Social Media, people are getting the message. It also helps that the Special Elections that shows the GOP is losing support in very Red Districts. I’ve had Republicans, Blanks and Independence voters stop and talked to me about helping in the fall. It won’t be easy to defeat Reed, but it’s not impossible.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. pystew says:

    That’s a unique plan. Reed can dance close to being considered “moderate” when he is talking to the public, it he moves right when he gets to Washington. He supports the tariffs and trade war with China, and is willing to tell us that we’ll have to feel the pain.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Rynstone says:

    Tom Reed will definitely be given the Conservative Line by Mike Long.

    The general election will most likely be won by winning over a the majority of the “Blank” voters.

    Although Tom Reed voted for the tax cuts Tom Reed voted against the PORK filled HR 1625Omnibus Budget which has the Democrats giddy as it continues just about everything former President Obama had. Nancy Pelosi and Schumer are giddy over the Omnibus being passed.

    In NY State this should help Reed win reelection as much of the voter base is conservative
    fiscally and the working class voters are seeing more money in their paychecks.

    Also, Trump dealing with the Korean Nuke hostage situation they have been playing for well over 20 years that started with Clinton and basically ignored by both GW Bush and Obama should help the GOP.
    The Trumpster is also dealing with the Communist Chinese intellectual theft and undervaluing their currency that has been ignored since Bill Clinton was in office , This too should help the GOP.

    What I believe will really help Congressman Tom Reed in CD-23 across Party Lines is his solid speaking in support of the 2nd Amendment. Unless the Democrat Candidate lies during campaigning about his support of the 2nd Amendment just to try and pick up more votes this issue should all but guarantee Tom Ton Reed’s reelection.

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  21. whungerford says:

    The Omnibus bill, H.R. 1625, was a Republican bill written by the Republican leadership. Tom Reed could vote against it because his vote wasn’t needed; he would have voted in favor if the party whip had asked. Was this bill pork filled? Maybe, but Gary, you need to be specific to make your point. What were the items you call pork?

    Is NY-23 fiscally conservative? Really, I see no evidence of that. Perhaps it will turn out that the voters object to budget busting tax cuts for the rich; time will tell about that.

    As for firearm regulations, “the times they are a’changing.” Political posturing that worked in the past may be a liability now.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Rynstone says:

    Everything was PORK. Fully funded Planned ParentHood, Fully Funded Obamacare, Fully funded Common Core, More money given to NIH labs, too much money given to the military.
    Remember, they still use base-line budgeting which means all spending increased from last year.

    The list could go on and on.
    I want the government size & spending to be at the level it was at when Bill Clinton left office. The majority of both the R & D’s are nothing but big government and big government junkies.

    Like

  23. pystew says:

    What will help Reed is if he admits the truth about the 2nd amendment and the SAFE Act. Read the first four words of the 2nd Amendment…A Well REGULATED Militia…says it all. The Supreme Court knows that the firearms can be regulated, and said that during HELLER v DC. Reed won’t accept that because he has mis-lead the voters. He also keeps preaching that the SAFE Act is unconstitutional. FALSE! Both NYS and Federal Courts have ruled that it conforms to both Constitutions, and the Supreme Court found no reason to review the SAFE Act, meaning that it is the law of the land.

    Is the NY-23 more conservative than Alabama? Is it more conservative than gerrymandered PA-18? No, it is not. We are also seeing our health costs go up and and we have now, because of Reed, we can not deduct our property taxes off on our Federal Taxes.

    Like

  24. whungerford says:

    Gary, I don’t think the things you mention match the definition of “pork barrel spending.” If Tom Reed would vote to keep open, for political reasons, a military base in his district that the Pentagon wanted to close, that would match the definition. Tom often does claim credit for spending in NY-23 as at West Valley. However, the items you list, if they are funded, are funded because they are seen by the majority in Congress to be in the public interest.

    Once the NYS legislature funded “member items.” These met the definition of pork. I asked State Senator O’Mara about this at a meeting in the Steele Memorial Library meeting room. His answer was that his member item had funded the room where we met. He scored a point and shut me up with that remark, but I remain opposed to spending to benefit incumbents in the legislature.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. josephurban says:

    Pork barrel spending refers to specific projects which benefit one congressional district.For example, the famous Alaska “bridge to nowhere”.

    All Congressmen, including Mr Reed, brag about bring home projects that benefit their own district. These are not necessarily pork projects if they fill a real need or increase safety or develop the economy.

    “We care about protecting the people that live in and around West Valley and we must continue working to make the area safer. I am glad to see the project will receive $75 million for 2018, these resources will continue to help further cleanup of this toxic site,” Reed stated. (from Reed’s website)

    “I care about securing America’s energy independence for future generations and remain committed to an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy policy.” Reed further stated, “With the passage of our alternative and renewable tax credit legislation, this project and others like it will continue to develop in our back yard and across the country bringing relief to local property taxpayers and creating good paying jobs.” (from Reed’s website)

    My experience as the mayor of Corning taught me how important the quality of infrastructure is to economic development and jobs. Safe, reliable transportation options are critical to virtually every commercial enterprise in America. This work includes cleaning up the West Valley Demonstration Project; I sponsored a bill that would increase funding for this effort to $75 million a year. 9 from Reed’s website).

    My point, a bill which helps local business and local folks is not necessarily “pork”. It is the job of government.

    Reed voted against the omnibus bill . Had his side won, the government would have been shut down. Maybe some think that would be a good idea. I don’t.

    Now to be factually correct, The omnibus bill did not “fund Planned Parenthood”. No bill has ever “funded Planned Parenthood”. What the radical right wing wanted to do was SPECIFICALLY prevent PP from accessing funds that every other health care provider can access. To be clear about the matter. PP does not get any reimbursement for abortion services, only for the other family planning services just like other health care providers. Facts. Not fake news.

    Like

  26. Rynstone says:

    Whungerford,

    “These times they are a changing”

    And now the rest of the story;
    As the media carried the water for Hillary Clinton they had everyone convinced in 2015 and 2016 that it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary would take her place as the rightful next President of the US.

    I did not buy any of it. I was traveling (driving) 5 or more days a week for work across the entire east coast and was daily running into people in restaurants, laboratories, hotels, and out hiking or mountain biking who were registered democrats and Blanks who could not wait to participate in their first primary election and vote for the Trumpster. Of course many were surprised and confused and even pissed when I informed them that many states do not have open primaries and require registration in the GOP Party to vote in the primaries. (Of course they would know this because our public schools and most universalities do not teach this in any sort of civic classes)

    In my travels I saw large 4’ x 8’ Trump signs in people yards, on their buildings and on small private owned business buildings. I saw normal sized Trumpster yard signs everywhere in people’s yards. Hell, it has been over a year and some people still have their Trump signs still proudly displayed.
    Across the entire east coast from NH to OH, TN and FL I saw less than 100 Hillary signs. We have now learned that the polls were rigged and even had outright manipulated data showing Hillary winning by close to 20% at times. After working a few weekends in NH and PA for the Trump campaign before the primary and the general election I was even more convinced that the Trumpster could win as he was easily winning the GOP primaries. From my observations I could not believe any of these “fake” polls declaring Hillary unbeatable.

    Now I am watching as the same shameful media catapults these kids from the Parkland High School into heroes. At the CNN driven and controlled Town Hall we all witnessed how disrespectful these students treated US Senator Marco Rubio and NRA spokesperson Dana Loesch. Weeks after the Parkland and encouraged by CNN these kids went over the top attacking Senator Rubio, Dana Loesch and the NRA accusing them of the Parkland murders. Saying they have blood on their hands. They have totally misrepresented the NRA implying that the NRA just wants to sell more guns. Everyone who can think or do 2 minutes of research can easily learn that the NRA is made up and supported by it’s millions of members across the Country.

    My brother is a deputy sheriff in Broward County. He had been assigned to the Elementary school in the same school district as the Parkland high school for years. After the outright media lies and some disrespectful elementary school kids and their parents he has decided to go back onto road patrol.

    Some info about the Parkland school. The High School campus consists of 45 acres with at least 10 building on it. There are over 3800 students in this high school complex with only one deputy sheriff to patrol it.
    At the bequest of the media, the students and the parents the police presence has been increase to several deputy sheriffs, several State Troopers on the ground and entrance securities put in place just this past Monday including single file entrance required to the school with metal detector wanding and only clear plastic backpacks allowed.
    There are also two portable high-lift guard towers in use.

    My brother or his wife drives their daughter to school everyday, pick her up at the end of her school day and attend sporting events that she participates in. They witness first hand the B/S taking place.

    Now these kids are protesting about all of the security on campus, the lack of privacy and the presence of more guns on campus. They don’t want more security they just simply want no-guns at all. I guess they have not studied much history.

    What the media is not telling you is that there are “representatives” from the anti-gun groups, the recent groups that have recently sprung up like the #metoo movement and several anti-Trump groups.

    These kids are being treated like rock stars by these groups and the media. However, we are beginning to see less and less national media coverage of these obnoxious kids. What they have failed to realize is that they are being manipulated and used by the media and these groups.

    With their big national protest taking place a few weeks ago across the country CBS reported that less that 5000 new voters have been registered. That’s nothing.

    Even obnoxious David Hogg is having trouble being accepted at the universities he has applied to. He is learning that college campuses do not want a troublemaker-lightening rod on their campus causing interruptions to their normal activities.

    As these kids continue to allow themselves to be used by the Progressive liberal groups and anti-Trump groups while hiding under the cloak of “victim” more and more people are seeing this movement for what it really is. Propped up by big money and steered and guided by outside forces.

    As they continue to attach the NRA accusing them of murder and avoid any useful discussion all the time playing the “poor victim kids” they are actually hurting their cause.
    There are other pro 2md Amendment groups out there in addition to the NRA.
    You can be sure that anyone who takes the time to join one of these pro 2nd Amendment will most likely vote for a candidate who is opposed to more gun control.

    As we saw in the recent special Congressional election in western PA the Democrat won by a very slim margin after campaigning as pro 2nd Amendment and running a TV commercial showing him shooting an AR15 with a high capacity magazine.

    If the Dems are looking to win seats this November they will have to run as pro 2nd Amendment in most districts.

    This year the elections will be tough to call for upstate NY. Cuomo received over 1 million less votes in 2014 than he did in 2010.
    With this years corruption trials taking place in NY City of former Cuomo aids this may have an effect on the elections. Of course there is very little coverage of these trials in upstate.
    I suspect that many gun owners having witnessed the NY SAFE Act and how it was passed with absolutely zero public knowledge and debate my guess in that they are very wary of any gun control candidates.

    Like

  27. Rynstone says:

    josephurnan,

    When In say that Planned Parenthood was fully funded by the PORK filled Omnibus Bill I mean the federal government did not reduce their huge portion of the Planned Parenthood funding, they actually increased it.

    Like

  28. whungerford says:

    Pope Francis: “Caring for migrants and the poor is just as important as preventing abortion.” Perhaps Tom Reed and other Catholics will take notice.

    Like

  29. Rynstone says:

    pystew,

    The 2nd Amendment
    “A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    A well regulated militia”
    From the NY State Constitution;
    ARTICLE XII*
    DEFENSE
    [Defense; militia]
    Section 1. The defense and protection of the state and of the United
    States is an obligation of all persons within the state. The legislature
    shall provide for the discharge of this obligation and for the maintenance
    and regulation of an organized militia.

    We are all obligated members of the militia in NY State and we are all people

    ” The right of the people” portion of the 2nd Amendment could not be any more clearer.

    After again watching the movie Hotel Rwanda Sunday evening my correct opinions on teh 2nd Amendment are reinforced.

    If any of you Progressive Liberals were living in Rwanda in the early 90’s as majority Tutsi you would have wanted every able bodied Tutsi to own firearms and ammunition. This would have prevented teh Hutu backed military and minority Hutu from preventing Genocide.

    The largest number of murders over the past century and a half have come from Governments against their own citizens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history

    Like

  30. whungerford says:

    Gary, what do you think Pope Francis would think of your idea of arming ourselves against each other/

    Like

  31. Rynstone says:

    Knife control coming to a city near you! You can’t make this stuff up!
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti?utm_source=shapironewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=040918-news&utm_campaign=position1

    The Government will will use guns to enforce knife control !

    Progressive Liberalism is a mental disorder.

    Progressive Liberals will happily accept Marxism as long as it’s “leaders” are democratically elected!

    Of course after Communism takes hold these self described Progressive Liberals who consider themselves the intellectuals will, be the first ones to be sent away to reeducation camps or eradicated.

    Like

  32. whungerford says:

    You needn’t make it up Gary when you can get fake news ready-made from dailywire.

    Like

  33. josephurban says:

    Ryn. There is NO FUNDING for PP in the budget. Zero. PP , like other health care providers does get reimbursed by Medicaid for services it supplies to poor families. That is true. Just like all other service providers. PP gets NO FUNDING for abortions. That is illegal.
    The facts.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. josephurban says:

    Gary Ryn. Why have you never responded to any of my factual posts about the LIMITS to the 2nd Amendment described by Justice Scalia?

    Liked by 1 person

  35. josephurban says:

    Earth to Ryn. Communism? I think you are fighting the wars of the 1950s and 60s. Can you name even one country today that is governed by the principles outlined by Karl Marx? (Maybe Cuba. )
    Seems to m that whenever folks run out of any legitimate arguments they resort to “Marxist”, “communist” “fascist”, etc. That is a technique for those who are afraid their ideas will not stand up to scrutiny. Why not just try to state a case using logic and evidence?

    Side note: Now, where on Earth do you suppose the brutal gangs in Rwanda got their weapons? think they made them ? Or do you think some weapons dealers from the US, China, Russia and Europe were only too happy to sell them the means to kill their fellow man?

    Liked by 1 person

  36. josephurban says:

    Ryn. One more fact you might want to cogitate on. Over the last 30 years it has become clear that the majority of Americans support “liberal “ideas. In the presidential elections, the only national forum for those ideas, it is the more liberal candidate that has won every popular vote since 1988, save for once.
    Proof?
    Clinton, 1992
    Clinton, 1996
    Gore, 2000
    Bush , 2004
    Obama, 2008
    Obama, 2012
    Clinton, 2016

    The liberal candidates were the ones who the American people wanted. Along with their liberal ideas.Let that sink in.

    Liked by 1 person

  37. whungerford says:

    On TV, I heard the USA described as one of the “liberal western democracies.” Not a bad thing, I think. We value liberal arts colleges, liberal education, why not liberal political views?

    Liked by 2 people

  38. Rynstone says:

    Josephurban,

    Sorry I can’t reply to all of your posts. I am busy with work so I can pay my exorbitant tax bill living in NY State. I already spend far too much time debating with people who I know will never come around mine and Ann Coulter’s way of thinking.

    I do not want to arm neighbor against neighbor. That is not the intent of the 2nd Amendment is about.

    If you have a specific comment regarding the Heller decision please tell me the specific comment and then teh specific sentence or paragraph from the decision.

    Current Communist (Marxixts) states
    China, Laos, Vietnam, Cuba & N. Korea

    failed former Communist State
    Afghanistan, Alba, Angola, Benin, Bulgaria, Congo-Brazzaville, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Grenada, Hungary, Derg, Ethiopia, Kampuche, Madagascar, Mongolia, Mozambique, North Vietnam, Poland, Romania, Somalia, South Yemen, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia
    I am also going to count the recently failed State of Venezuela. (Socialist Democrat party!)
    From WIKI
    “Following the fall of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958, Venezuelan politics were dominated by the Third Way Christian democratic COPEI and the center-left social democratic Democratic Action (AD) parties; this two-party system was formalized by the puntofijismo arrangement. Economic crises in the 1980s and 1990s led to a political crisis which resulted in hundreds dead in the Caracazo riots of 1989, two attempted coups in 1992, and impeachment of President Carlos Andrés Pérez for corruption in 1993. A collapse in confidence in the existing parties saw the 1998 election of Hugo Chávez, who had led the first of the 1992 coup attempts, and the launch of a “Bolivarian Revolution”, beginning with a 1999 Constituent Assembly to write a new Constitution of Venezuela.
    Two major blocs of political parties are in Venezuela: the incumbent leftist bloc United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), its major allies Fatherland for All (PPT) and the Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV), and the opposition bloc grouped into the electoral coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática. This includes A New Era (UNT) together with allied parties Project Venezuela, Justice First, Movement for Socialism (MAS) and others. Hugo Chávez, the central figure of the Venezuelan political landscape since his election to the Presidency in 1998 as a political outsider, died in office in early 2013, and was succeeded by Nicolás Maduro (initially as interim President, before narrowly winning the Venezuelan presidential election, 2013).”

    Medicaid funding and Title X funding for Planned Parent do come from the Federal coffers.

    Josephurban,
    It is with good reason we do not hold the presidential vote to a popular vote.
    It is well documented that the Presidential election is based on the likability of the Candidate, not their stance on the issues.
    I have a 44 year old nephew who was a big Obama fan and “Supporter” and is now a big Trump fan and supporter. however he is not a registered voter. I have another 46 year old nephew who is conservative and libertarian but he also is not a registered voter even though he used to serve on the Waverly School board?!?!?

    I have a woman friend in VA who at 38 years old registered to vote and voted for Obama in his first term but did not vote in Obama’s second election because she got laid off and blamed it on Obama. When asked why she voted for Obama in 2008 she replied “I thought it would be cool to have a black President”. When I told her that Obama had a black father and a white mother so he was not truly “black” she replied OH? I told her that even though she is my friend she is too stupid and uninformed to vote on her own. She agreed and has not voted since. All three of these people are college grads. 2 Associate degrees and 1 Bachelors degree.

    A better measurement would be to look at the recent Congressional elections since 2010 and the state’s governors and legislative bodies make-up.

    Progressive Liberalism own ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times the Washington Post and other main street rags.
    How do you explain all of teh GOP Victories.
    And of course the RINO’s of John McCain, Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor all being primaried by more conservative candidate with Cantor being defeated.

    Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi are so bad for the Democrat party.

    Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are good for the social Democrat but bad for any of teh JFK democrats that are left. You guys on here are not JFK democrats. I was at one time. I did not leave the Party, the Party left me.

    Like

  39. Rynstone says:

    T^his gal pretty much hits the nail on the head

    Like

  40. Rynstone says:

    Nancy doing her best to hurt the Democrat candidates this November

    Like

  41. Rynstone says:

    And some of my personal choices from former MTV personality Kennedy that I think most people will enjoy.

    Tucker

    Even Michelle Obama running her mouth will hurt the Democrat party this year

    Biased Ted Kopple on “Facts”

    Must see on Ted Kopple and CBS

    The Democrat policy of open borders and the use of “undocumented workers’ or “undocumented immigrants” instead of illegal aliens or illegal immigrants will also hurt the Democrat candidates.

    If we let all of the illegal immigrants come here (while we continue to give theior corrupt countries billions in aid) then “here” will eventually become “there”.

    This one discussing then President Obama is important to watch

    Two black man (David Webb & Ken Blackwell) on voter ID laws and their assault on voter’s rights

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  42. josephurban says:

    Ryn. I have answered this before but I will answer it again. The DC v Heller decision said that people have a right to own a gun. It also said that the government has the right to LIMIT the type of weapons available to the public. And WHO can own a gun. It also stated that NO RIGHT IS UNLIMITED.
    I support the 2nd Amendment as do 99% of all Americans. I am offended by the NRA/Right wing LIES that only those who want unlimited access to all kinds of weapons support the 2nd Amendment. That is simply dishonest. Just as the first, third, fourth, etc amendments have limits, so does the 2nd. Period.
    Even the most conservative justice in recent history (Scalia) wrote an opinion stating the limits of the 2nd Amendment. That is simply the fact. Live with it. NO right is unlimited.

    Like

  43. josephurban says:

    Ryn…from your post:
    “Josephurban,
    It is with good reason we do not hold the presidential vote to a popular vote.
    It is well documented that the Presidential election is based on the likability of the Candidate, not their stance on the issues.”

    The “logic” of this statement escapes me. So, in your opinion the candidate with the LEAST votes should win an election? Because….?????

    So, by your logic , all the Republicans elected to Congress in the gerrymandered and rural districts should not be office because the candidate who lost the popular vote (their opponent) should be seated in Congress? And the governors who won elections should also not be in office because the candidate with the most votes is the most “popular” and elections are not about getting the most votes????

    That “logic” is certainly interesting.

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  44. Rynstone says:

    The Presidential election uses the Electoral college.

    The candidate with the most number of electoral college votes wins. What is so difficult to understand about that?
    If we elected the President by the popular vote a Presidential candidate would only have to promise and cater to CA, NY, NJ, FL, PA, TX and Ohio and or IL to win the presidency.
    Jsst think 5 – 7 states could easily determine the outcome of the Presidency and totally ignore the rest of the country. Not good…..
    The Trumpster’s campaign played by the rules, focused and won big time.

    Electoral College Votes
    Trumpster – 304
    Hillary – 227

    The counties won by the Trumpster
    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=map+of+counties+won+by+trump&fr=yfp-t&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCxqvka3UsAA27GF.jpg#id=3&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCxqvka3UsAA27GF.jpg&action=click

    I don’t follow your attempt at trying to use Congressional races and Gubernatorial races as an analogy. You don’t think there are Democrat districts that are gerrymandered? Look at Maurice Hincey’s Congressional district

    Take a look at that Gerrymandered bad boy! CD-22 up to 2012.
    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=2008+NY+Congressional+district+22+map+Maurice+Hinchey&fr=yfp-t&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fassets.realclearpolitics.com%2Fimages%2Fdistricts%2FNY22.gif#id=0&iurl=http%3A%2F%2Fassets.realclearpolitics.com%2Fimages%2Fdistricts%2FNY22.gif&action=click

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  45. Rynstone says:

    The Progressive Liberals in CD-23 need a good candidate like Maxine Waters. Champion of the poor and downtrodden.

    Karma is catching up with auntie Maxine
    https://independentminute.com/2018/04/13/wacko-maxine-waters-receives-brutal-karma-in-front-of-her-4-5-million-home/?utm_source=RR%20Indie%20Minute&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:1505451&utm_campaign=4-13mid-day

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  46. josephurban says:

    Ryn. You have not responded to my statement. Why do you think it is best that the candidate with the 2nd most votes wins elections? I don’t understand your logic and you have not explained that position. Would you take the same position for gubernatorial and congressional elections? Why or why not?

    Like

  47. Rynstone says:

    Due to the concentrated populations in certain states and even cities the Electoral college must be used for the Presidency. Because this is the only election that everyone in the entire country participates in.

    For Gubernatorial races it is only the people in that one state participating.
    For Congressional House races it is only the people in the specific Congressional district that vote in that specific election.

    One could make an argument using NY State as an example that an Electoral college vote might be a better indicator of the state wide areas selecting a winner for the Governor and US Senate elections.
    The City of New York has about as many people in it as does the remaining areas of the entire state of NY.

    All a candidate would have to do is promise the downstate population something and they could dominate the state wide vote due to the large population of NY City in a smaller area that any one single upstate county.
    See the 2014 Election Map of the Cuomo/Astorino election.
    Cuomo only won 14 out of 62 counties (Astorino won 46) but still won the Governor’s election
    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=The+The+election+map+by+counties+of+Astroino+and+Cuomo&fr=yfp-t&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwrfny.files.wordpress.com%2F2014%2F11%2Fnygop-map.jpg#id=0&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwrfny.files.wordpress.com%2F2014%2F11%2Fnygop-map.jpg&action=click

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  48. josephurban says:

    Ryn. Still avoiding the question. Why do you think the person who gets FEWER votes should take power ? Why should the candidate who is the less popular be the one in power? You seem to be evading any answer to that philosophical question.
    It seems to be the only “reason” you have articulated so far is that you seem to think that a person who lives in a rural area should, for some reason , have his vote count more than a person who lives in an urban area. So, a citizen in an urban area should have less say in who governs us. Why is that?

    Like

  49. Rynstone says:

    joseph, I am not avoiding your question. You are having a hard time grasping the concept. With 50 State (57 with Obama) you can’t have 4 or 5 states selecting the President at the cost to the other states.
    I will try one last time
    A candidate could promise the citizens of NY, NJ, FL, CA, OH, IL and TX that their states would receive all of the food it needed at no cost to be provided by the other states, no federal income taxes and double the amount of social security upon retirement while the remaining states are forced to continue to pay federal income taxes and keep their current rate of Social Security upon retirement.

    This candidate would win down would win hands down in a popularity contest would be laughed out of the race with the Electoral College.

    Like

  50. josephurban says:

    Ry. And still, you will not answer my question. By what logic should the candidate who gets FEWER votes be elected? It is really a simple question.

    Your statement that a candidate could “promise the citizens” of NY, TX, etc something and thereby win the election with votes of ONLY those states defies logic. that would mean that everyone or a vast majority of those states had exactly the same desires and economic situation. Nothing could be further from the truth. Every state has many rural and some urban areas.The example you give is just silly. Especially since no president could pass any law without at least 50 senators and 270 house members.. Are you saying that the 86 senators from the other states would just roll over and pass such laws? And Congressmen from the rest of the country would just say, “Ok, let’s give special privileges to a few states”?Silly.
    You make the point that a popular vote system would mean only a few states would matter. Just the opposite. Because of the winner take all EC system only a few states matter NOW.
    Despite Texas and California and NY having large populations the candidates hardly spend time in those states. The citizens are virtually ignored.
    Why not? Because they already know how the majority are going to vote. As a result states like Ohio, PA, Florida are where the time and money is spent. Way out of proportion to their populations.That is why they are called “battle ground states”. A system of popular voting nationwide would force candidates to take into account ALL the states, both urban and rural, north and south, east and west.
    They would even come to NY!
    A final point. Right now if you are a GOPer your vote for POTUS in NY is worthless. The Dem is guaranteed to win. Same thing if you are a Dem in Texas. Right now the votes of millions of Americans do not count. Why should they bother? In a popular vote system EVERYONE’s vote, no matter what state you are in, would count!
    Still have not directly answered my point: Why should the candidate who the majority of citizens DO NOT WANT be elected as president. I don’t blame you for sidestepping. It is an untenable position for anyone who truly believes in the will of the people.

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