Statistics

auto theftI attended a lecture by a criminologist on crime statistics. He explained that most persons convicted of auto theft are young. He asked if this meant that most auto thieves were young people. His answer was emphatically no. Most auto thefts are never solved– only a small percentage of thieves are convicted. A plausible explanation for frequent conviction of youthful offenders is that young thieves, inexperienced, are more likely to be caught. The perpetrators of unsolved auto thefts are unknown.

An overwhelming percentage of those commenting on Tom Reed’s facebook page oppose Republican ideas for tax reform. It is easy to be misled. One cautionary indication is the relatively high number of those who “like” Tom’s postings; these are often persons who leave no comment. Those who do comment represent an insignificant and biased sample of Tom’s constituents. In NY-23 which leans Republican, there may well be a “silent majority” which supports Tom on taxes. Tom is one of a few persons who knows the truth–his polling will tell him if he is in trouble with the electorate or not.

There are reasons that a reasonable person might approve of H.R.1:

  • Many may owe less, which they will see as good news.
  • Many may believe that H.R.1 simplifies filing a tax return.
  • Many may agree that cutting business taxes will create jobs.
  • Many may agree that profits held overseas should be taxed.
  • Anyone impacted by AMT might be glad to see that gone.
  • Many believe that estate taxes are hurtful.

There may well be widespread opinion in NY-23 that supports Republican tax reform. Tom’s challengers would do well to present ideas that the electorate prefers to H.R.1. Calling Tom a liar will only provoke retaliation.

 

 

 

 

 

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About whungerford

* Contributor at NewNY23rd.com where we discuss the politics, economics, and events of the New New York 23rd Congressional District (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, (Eastern) Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben,Tioga, Tompkins, and Yates Counties) Please visit and comment on whatever strikes your fancy.
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2 Responses to Statistics

  1. Barbara Griffin says:

    I’ve followed Reed’s FB page off and on for the last several years. Before the Trump era, there were many more positive “atta boy” comments from his constituents than I’ve seen recently. His support of the new tax reform proposals brought harsh criticism across the district. I hope it sticks, and that more people in the 23rd realise that Reed is in the game for his own benefit, and not for the benefit of the rest of us.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. whungerford says:

    I am eager to read more about the Horseheads meeting which I did not attend. The two TV reports, WENY and WETM, both portray Reed as calm and responsible, and his constituents as angry and unruly. Reed attributes their anger to “misinformation,” anger which he says, patronizingly, he understands.

    I wonder what would have happened, if the audience had sat silent and sullen for the cameras?

    Like

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