I attended a lecture by a criminologist on crime statistics. He explained that most persons convicted of auto theft are young. He asked if this meant that most auto thieves were young people. His answer was emphatically no. Most auto thefts are never solved– only a small percentage of thieves are convicted. A plausible explanation for frequent conviction of youthful offenders is that young thieves, inexperienced, are more likely to be caught. The perpetrators of unsolved auto thefts are unknown.
An overwhelming percentage of those commenting on Tom Reed’s facebook page oppose Republican ideas for tax reform. It is easy to be misled. One cautionary indication is the relatively high number of those who “like” Tom’s postings; these are often persons who leave no comment. Those who do comment represent an insignificant and biased sample of Tom’s constituents. In NY-23 which leans Republican, there may well be a “silent majority” which supports Tom on taxes. Tom is one of a few persons who knows the truth–his polling will tell him if he is in trouble with the electorate or not.
There are reasons that a reasonable person might approve of H.R.1:
- Many may owe less, which they will see as good news.
- Many may believe that H.R.1 simplifies filing a tax return.
- Many may agree that cutting business taxes will create jobs.
- Many may agree that profits held overseas should be taxed.
- Anyone impacted by AMT might be glad to see that gone.
- Many believe that estate taxes are hurtful.
There may well be widespread opinion in NY-23 that supports Republican tax reform. Tom’s challengers would do well to present ideas that the electorate prefers to H.R.1. Calling Tom a liar will only provoke retaliation.