Republicans are ‘never’ going to repeal Obamacare.–John Boehner, Jul 25, 2017
Republicans have talked tax reform for years, but still can’t agree on how. They want to cut taxes for wealthy individuals and corporations, but they can’t do that without busting the budget. They can’t pass a budget busting bill using reconciliation, which is the same as saying they can’t pass it. Reportedly only 30% favor Republican tax reform ideas–they are unpopular with the people. Yet they have raised expectations reflected in the stock market. When they fail, investors will be disappointed. They have once again painted themselves in a corner.
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/paul-ryan-is-choking-on-his-own-mystery-meat/
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/358134-gop-senators-fear-bill-will-be-cast-as-gift-to-rich
New NY 23rd 
The vast majority of voters in NY23 become very interested when they hear ‘TAX CUTS FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS”.
They are not interested in details, nor will they listen to liberal libel against their hero, Tom Reed. Tom is delivering for them.
Similar scenarios will play out in similar districts throughout the country. While a number of Republican congressmen in blue states will vote against the loss of property tax and state income tax deductions, there will be other Republicans who will vote the party line. See Reed, Tom.
And then… there are the detestable Blue Dog Democrats, who are already straining at the leash to find some way that they can support these tax cuts.
As for the Democratic Party itself, Pelosi’s Party is against the tax cuts. Reed / Trump supporters expect as much. If anything, this will be taken as an endorsement of the cuts.
I am not inclined to predict that the Republican tax cuts will fail. Tax cuts are the entire reason that the Rs have turned a blind eye to Trump’s antics. They MUST deliver results to their donors.
As an aside….will Republicans need Trump after the tax cut fight, regardless of the outcome? Pence will get them everything else that they desire, more reliably and with much less drama.
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Arthur, thanks for your comment. In one way, Republican tax reform has already failed–Ryan is forced to settle for less than he wanted.
I don’t think they will discard Trump, but they may distance themselves from him as he becomes ever more embarrassing and threatening.
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The fact that Reed and Collins are the only NY Representatives (Democratic or Republicans) that support the proposal speaks volumes. The voters will not automatically accept it. Give the people time to digest the how the details will affect them before you predict doom. It feels like the Health Care fiasco again.
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Rich,
Yes, Collins and Reed’s votes speak volumes. You are hearing one thing. I hear something else. Their votes tell me LOUDLY that they feel free to vote whichever way they wish without fear of any payback from their voters. If anything, they’re ratings rise.
Please reread my comment. I did not predict doom. I am trying to talk reality.
The polls clearly show that many Rs will vote whichever way they are told. And that includes Rs in NY23. And there is recent history…
Health care Repeal…
This happened 5 weeks ago, and should be easily remembered.
Let me recap….The R bill passed the House easily along party lines. It went to the Senate, where it was defeated. Dems were completely united against. Reed voted against his constituents. We can be sure that he will again for tax cuts. I am trying to point out the reality that no amount of opposition that currently exists will change Reed’s vote.
And for tax cuts, there is a different calculus…
A number of blue state Rs will probably vote against the bill as long as SALT is in it in any form, as well as the removal of the property tax deduction.
However, this loss of support may be offset by Blue Dog democrats.
In any event, this discussion is completely academic for the NY23.
Chuck and Kirsten will vote Nay. Against cuts.
Reed will vote AYE. For cuts.
It’s a done deal.
It’s just a pity that today there is no organized opposition in NY23 to make Reed think twice. He can sedately sail serenely on.
And there is no organized opposition to be seen in the future, either.
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