I believe these beliefs are false:
- Tom Reed will be easily defeated in 2018
- NY-23 is the result of gerrymandering.
- Tom Reed faithfully represents those who voted for him.
Here are my reasons:
It is very difficult and unusual to unseat an entrenched incumbent. People speaking up at town hall meetings certainly aren’t representative of NY-23 voters. Hundreds attended the June 3 meetings, but there are hundreds of thousands of voters in NY-23. Reed might be defeated, but it is foolish and self-defeating to assume that it will happen.
After the 2010 census, the NYS Legislature could not agree on redistricting. Subsequently, the district lines were drawn by the Federal judiciary. Tom Reed and NYS Republicans had nothing to do with the decision.
Tom Reed represents his own interests. He no more listens to his Republican supporters, whether moderate or extreme, than he does to his Democratic constituents. He is the incumbent in a safe district–concerning his ability to win reelection should he choose to run, it matters little what he says or does.
If Tom does run for reelection in 2018, he will most likely run as he has before, not on the issues but as Mr. Niceguy, Mary’s little brother, Tom on the job , from here, one of us.