Three false beliefs

trumansburg
I believe these beliefs are false:

  • Tom Reed will be easily defeated in 2018
  • NY-23 is the result of gerrymandering.
  • Tom Reed faithfully represents those who voted for him.

Here are my reasons:

It is very difficult and unusual to unseat an entrenched incumbent. People speaking up at town hall meetings certainly aren’t representative of NY-23 voters. Hundreds attended the June 3 meetings, but there are hundreds of thousands of voters in NY-23. Reed might be defeated, but it is foolish and self-defeating to assume that it will happen.

After the 2010 census, the NYS Legislature could not agree on redistricting. Subsequently, the district lines were drawn by the Federal judiciary. Tom Reed and NYS Republicans had nothing to do with the decision.

Tom Reed represents his own interests. He no more listens to his Republican supporters, whether moderate or extreme, than he does to his Democratic constituents. He is the incumbent in a safe district–concerning his ability to win reelection should he choose to run, it matters little what he says or does.

If Tom does run for reelection in 2018, he will most likely run as he has before, not on the issues but as Mr. Niceguy, Mary’s little brother, Tom on the job , from here, one of us.

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About whungerford

* Contributor at NewNY23rd.com where we discuss the politics, economics, and events of the New New York 23rd Congressional District (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, (Eastern) Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben,Tioga, Tompkins, and Yates Counties) Please visit and comment on whatever strikes your fancy.
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13 Responses to Three false beliefs

  1. Daryl Denning says:

    Thanks for the education re: gerrymandering. I was under the impression that it was a big factor. I also believe that it will be difficult to defeat Reed. Unless the Democrats have a phenomenal speaker who is not from Ithaca/Tompkins and has deep roots in his or her hometown, and can draw unaffiliated/independents, with great charisma and appeal to a wide spectrum, I expect the odds are in Reed’s favor, despite the 45 administration’s offensive policies. Republicans know how to win and Dems have not figured out how to do so. I am not a politically astute guy and after 11 Town Hall Meetings, multiple rallies in Corning and much more, I am leaning toward much less of this, with great regret in arriving at this point. For the politically astute, I am hoping for the best possible progress out of this mess, but have become skeptical, and need to be practical, realistic, and protective of my psychological and spiritual wellbeing. This is likely my last post, leaving that up to those skilled in experience and wisdom in politics. I believe money continues to be a huge factor and we know who are the beneficiaries.

  2. whungerford says:

    I grew up in Jackson, MI, which claims to be the birthplace of the Republican Party. There is a large stone monument on Franklin St. as evidence. The inscription claims that the Republican party was destined to “abolish slavery, vindicate democracy, and perpetuate the Union.” I lived within a stone’s throw of “Union St.” At the time I believed that every reasonable person was a Republican. We all liked Ike.

    It was always a myth. Even so, it is hard to understand how what was once seen, especially by women, as the party of good government came to be recognized as the “stupid party” and the “party of the rich.”

  3. k pitcher says:

    I am agreeing with Daryl. I have not heard f a single Democratic Rally in the district. The mid terms are rapidly approaching,very quickly, tremendously soon!
    I have heard there are 5 people that have thrown their hats into the ring.
    I have not seen or read a single word from any of these hopefuls.
    Face book is free, Why are there not 5 friend request on my timeline?
    If the Democrats want to even put up a showing they had best get off their collective ass and win my vote! It doesn’t come automatically and I am a Dem. Find a good old fashion Blue Dog and get him or her out there doing the festivals going to the papers, getting time on FL-1. etc. you’ re going to have to spend some of your money
    If I don’t know you I sure as hell can’t vote for you.

    If anyone reading this has any pull or contacts with party majors please disseminate this as widely as possible

  4. pystew says:

    K-Pitcher, The midterms are approaching, but I disagree that they are “rapidly approaching,very quickly, tremendously soon!”

    The election is November 6, 2018— 17 months from Tuesday (June 6).

    I don’t know what you’ve heard, but in reality only two have filed with the Federal Elections Commissions. Another announced that he is running in his hometown newspaper. Two others might be announcing this month.

    It would be unwise for candidates to spend money so far ahead of the election.

    The Democratic Primary, if one is needed will be in June, 2018. They will be criss-crossing the NY23rd and if you are a democrat you’ll get mailings, phone calls, and be asked to volunteer well before then. The campaign against Rep. Reed will start the day after the primary.

    If I was running I would stay away from Finger Lakes 1. I read nothing but negative vibes on their forums.

  5. pystew says:

    I agree will all three of the beliefs are false.

    Beating an incumbent is never easy. My pet peeve is when I read “I hope Reed loses” or something like that. Hope doesn’t win elections–organization and hard work might get challengers close. Large groups of volunteers and a little bit of luck help, too.

    Gerrymandered? The NY 23rd is more balanced now than the old NY-29 that elected Reed in 2010. The old district included the Town of Geneva, but not the City of Geneva! The feeling is the city, with Hobart & William Smith Colleges would bring in too many Liberals. I also glad to be out of Monroe County, which at one time was in three congressional districts. They saw many political ads on TV and many didn’t really know which ones pertained to them until they went to their polling locations.

    Tom represents Tom. There has been too many times that he has told his constituents one thing, then he goes back to Washington and votes the opposite way.

  6. Maureen Harding says:

    If Trump is indeed thrown out of office, this will impact Tom Reed’s re-election. No one will want to ride on that coat tail. And you can also expect Tom Reed to reneg on his support…meaning he would be the forked tongue guy we all know he is.

    Three things need to happen: 1.) Register 20,000 more Democrats, 2.) more Democrats need to run for local offices at the County, Village and Town levels and 3.) Get more younger people involved in government and civics!

    The alternative to fracking is local coalition building around renewables and start-ups that support those industries. It is time that people intent on staying in the Southern Tier stop relying on their GOP led government contingencies to provide them jobs…all promises that have not amounted to any increase in jobs for four decades. Be the change. Stop relying on government to do it for you. The jobless rate is still higher than the national and state average (6.1) and that fact has not changed under Tom Reed or ANY of your entrenched GOP government REPRESENTATIVES….that’s my two cents for now.

  7. pystew says:

    It is not too late to run for elections, but close. Party Petitions to run for County and Town elections, and in some places City and Village elections can be signed beginning Tuesday, June 6. They need to be returned to your Board of Elections by the end of office hours on Thursday, July 10.

    You would be surprised at the low number of signatures you will need to have to be placed on the ballot. In the Town of Barrington in Yaes County, Republicans can get on the ballot with 23 signatures!

    There are probably Town Board seats that will be open in every town in the NY 23. If your county or Town is like Yates County and our towns, most of the seat hav e beenuncontested.

    Trying to get on the ballot is a real reason to contact every democrat to sign your petition. Having a real contest race is a real reason for voters to get out and vote in November.

    All of this is good practice in getting more people out to vote for Congress in 2018!

  8. Rob Pawlak says:

    Maureen is absolutely correct. Register voters. Engage young people. I think the difficult part is keeping young voters focused and involved. If someone has a solution to that, I would love to hear it.

  9. k pitcher says:

    17 months is a wink of the eye,when you have to create a brand, plan and publish a concise position. Stick your fingers into each county see how the water feels. The 23rd is not a monolithic district,and as of yet I the declared candidates are not even known supper table names.
    There needs to be party operatives, to sow seeds of doubt in the Reed voters mind.
    At this point the only reason I have to vote for any one over Reed, is because he won’t be Reed!

  10. Indy in 23 says:

    Pretty sure “Hope” won an election for an unknown Illinois Senator in 2008. Maybe the answer isn’t a dye in the wool hard left-wing Democrat, but a moderate independent that is concerned with the people in the 23rd, rather than national party lines. I know a lot of Catholic Democrats that vote for Reed on the abortion issue alone. All the Democrats put up against Reed are extreme left of even a lot of Democrats in the district, consequently, they automatically breed distrust from those most likely to vote for them. If the Democratic parties in the 23rd broke from the line and supported an Independent candidate who is not a Democrat then I Reed can be beat. Other than that, he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

  11. whungerford says:

    I believe these ideas are false: a Democrat can’t win in NY-23; only a certain flavor of Democrat might win; former challengers have held far left views; Democrats are only concerned about national party prospects. It isn’t clear how the Democratic Party could nominate an independent candidate, why the party would do that, or how that would help defeat Tom Reed.

  12. Arthur Ahrens says:

    I couldn’t agree with you more. Pystew and others think that there is plenty of time. They are seriously deluded.
    1. Reed is garnering a great deal of free publicity.
    2. Reed has already amassed a $1 million warchest
    3. Reed continues to make his name in town halls
    4. Democratic chairs (such as pystew) are content to run the old losing playbooks.
    5. There is no candidate, no message and the Democrats are invisible.
    6. No message is being disseminated to soften Reed’s support.

    Reed wins next year. In a cakewalk.
    Thanks Dems!!

  13. Arthur Ahrens says:

    More democratic voters would be nice. 20,000 more is sheer fantasy.
    The message needs to be delivered again and again and again that Reed is for Reed and not his constituents.
    Sadly, the dems are silent.
    No letters
    No radio
    No tv
    No editorials
    Reed wins and wins easily in 2018

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