Tom Reed and Donald Trump both have predicted that the Republicans can defeat Hillary Clinton in New York State is in the year’s election. They are being pretty hopeful, because there are more Democrats in NYC (3,071,159) than Republicans in NYS (2,731,688). (source: NYS Board of Elections, as of April 1, 2016). Sure, Trump can beat Hillary in New York, but he won’t.
Like most Upstate districts, the Republicans dominate the NY23rd. You might be surprised that, according to the NYS Board of Elections, the Republicans make of 37.4% of the registered voters in our district, only 5% more than the Democrats. The third largest group of voters are “blanks”–not affiliated to any political party.
According to Tom Reed he supports Donald Trump because the NY23rd Republicans overwhelming voted for Trump in the April Primary election. Looking at the election results, only 52.1% of the NY23rd republicans favored Trump. The near-by districts supported Trump by a much higher rate. In the 26th (Buffalo) 64% supported Trump. He received 63% of the vote in the 27th (Genesee, Livingston & Orleans Counties). Matter of fact only three districts north of NYC, the 20th at 48.6% (which includes Albany), 24th at 48.3% (which includes Syracuse) & 26th at 51.3% (which includes Rochester) supported Trump less than we did. (Source: NYS Board of Elections)
Those NY 23rd republicans who did not favor Trump, and didn’t want to vote for Cruz or Carson–aka moderate, traditional republicans–voted for John Kasich. He received just over 16,000 votes. Will Kasich’s voters now support Trump? Some will, but I contend that most will not. They can say they are staying home, or that they will vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, but as election day draws closer, they will feel the need to vote for Hillary to make sure Trump is defeated. Trump’s campaign escapades will not endear him to the Kasich’s voters, nor will Democrat swarm to Trump.
How does that affect our congressional race? In most states republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump and they generally receiving higher poll numbers than his. Our congressman is in the opposite situation. Reed was one of Trump’s early congressional supporter, was named Trump’s NYS Co-Chair, and he is sticking with him. Sure Trump supporters will vote for Reed. Will the “No Trump No Way” Kasich voters vote for Reed? I think not. Will the Democrats vote for Reed. I think not.
NY23rd Data From the April Republican Primary