How will Donald Trump affect the NYS Down Ballot elections?
- Will the moderate republican voters support their controversial candidate, or will they “hold their nose” and vote democratic? or will they go Libertarian and vote for Gary Johnson? or Independent Evan McMullin?
- Will they stay home on November 8?
- Will endorsing Trump in March, before he was the party’s nominee (See “A clear choice”), help or hurt Rep. Reed?
- Will democrats stay home, or continue their routine of voting in large numbers during Presidential elections?
How the voters rect to the Trump campaign affect our congressional race? Of course we won’t really know until we analyze the November 8 voting data. In the mean time we have to read and make sense of the few political tea leafs we find in recent political articles.
It was announced on August 18 that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be coming to Buffalo (August 29) to fund raise “aimed at preserving his Republican majority in the House of Representatives”. He will then go to Rochester (August 30) for a breakfast event that “will benefit Rep. Tom Reed.” Ryan is asking for “contribution levels at $500, $1,000 and $2,700” for Reed.
We do realize that Rep. Reed has raised quite a bit more money than John Plumb, but the RNCC must feel that he needs more. I wonder what has the Republican National Campaign Committee seen in their tea leaves?
The July 19 Quinnipac University Poll had Upstate voters favoring Trump over Clinton by 12 points, 48% to 36%.
The most recent (August 15) Siena College New York State Poll that gives the democrats a more favorable picture of Upstate voters:
- Favorable Opinion Clinton 41%, Trump 32%
- If the Vote was held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton 42%, Donald Trump 34%, Gary Johnson 9%, Jill Stein 9%
- Who is most likely to become the President: Hillary Clinton 66%, Donald Trump 30%
- Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy: Hillary Clinton 44%, Donald Trump 46%
We must realize that ‘Upstate’ is not just the NY 23rd. It includes major urban areas–Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany–usually havens for Democratic voters and none are in our district. We also must admit that Trump has had a few bad weeks, and with campaign team #3, his approval record may change.
Rep. Reed is quick to point out that Trump won the April Primary in grand fashion, and Hillary lost her primary in grand fashion. Both are true. Trump received 31,764 NY 23rd votes, Hillary had 22,479. Besides Hillary and Trump, there were voters for the other candidates.
- Who will receive a majority of Bernie’s 29,980 NY 23rd primary voters?
- John Kasich, who does not support Trump, had 16,094 NY 23rd primary voters. How many of them will vote Democratic?
- How many of Ted Cruz’s 13,069 voters will “vote their conscience” ? Will they automatically switch to Trump?
- How many of these 60,000 voters will stay home instead of voting?
Another statistic that is looked at during a presidential election is how many voters only vote for president and not the down ballot candidates. Maybe this year many will vote for the down ballot candidate but not for president.
John Plumb realizes that Donald Trump will have an affect on his race, but he has reminded us that he is “not running against Donald Trump, I’m running against Tom Reed. This district is what I’m interested in.”