Trump, Polls, & the NY 23rd House Race

How will Donald Trump affect the NYS Down Ballot elections?

  • problems-3Will the moderate republican voters support their controversial candidate, or will they “hold their nose” and vote democratic? or will they go Libertarian and vote for Gary Johnson? or Independent Evan McMullin?
  • Will they stay home on November 8?
  • Will endorsing Trump in March, before he was the party’s nominee (See  “A clear choice”), help or hurt Rep. Reed?
  • Will democrats stay home, or continue their routine of voting in large numbers during Presidential elections?

How the voters rect to the Trump campaign affect our congressional race? Of course we won’t really know until we analyze the November 8 voting data. In the mean time we have to read and make sense of the few political tea leafs we find in recent political articles.

It was announced on August 18 that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be coming to Buffalo (August 29) to fund raise “aimed at preserving his Republican majority in the House of Representatives”. He will then go to Rochester (August 30) for a breakfast event that “will benefit Rep. Tom Reed.” Ryan is asking for “contribution levels at $500, $1,000 and $2,700” for Reed.

We do realize that Rep. Reed has raised quite a bit more money than John Plumb, but the RNCC must feel that he needs more.  I wonder what has the Republican National Campaign Committee seen in their tea leaves?

The July 19 Quinnipac University Poll had Upstate voters favoring Trump over Clinton by 12 points, 48% to 36%.

The most recent (August 15) Siena College New York State Poll that gives the democrats a more favorable picture of Upstate voters:

  • Favorable Opinion Clinton 41%, Trump 32%
  • If the Vote was held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton 42%, Donald Trump 34%, Gary Johnson 9%, Jill Stein 9%
  • Who is most likely to become the President: Hillary Clinton 66%, Donald Trump 30%
  • Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy: Hillary Clinton 44%, Donald Trump 46%

We must realize that ‘Upstate’ is not just the NY 23rd. It includes major urban areas–Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany–usually havens for Democratic voters and none are in our district. We also must admit that Trump has had a few bad weeks, and with campaign team #3, his approval record may change.

Rep. Reed is quick to point out that Trump won the April Primary in grand fashion, and Hillary lost her primary in grand fashion. Both are true. Trump received 31,764 NY 23rd votes,  Hillary had 22,479. Besides Hillary and Trump, there were voters for the other candidates.

  • Who will receive a majority of Bernie’s 29,980 NY 23rd primary voters?
  • John Kasich, who does not support Trump, had 16,094 NY 23rd primary voters. How many of them will vote Democratic?
  • How many of  Ted Cruz’s 13,069 voters will “vote their conscience” ? Will they automatically switch to Trump?
  • How many of these 60,000 voters will stay home instead of voting?

Another statistic that is looked at during a presidential election is how many voters only vote for president and not the down ballot candidates. Maybe this year many will vote for the down ballot candidate but not for president. 

John Plumb realizes that Donald Trump will have an affect on his race, but he has reminded us that  he is  “not running against Donald Trump, I’m running against Tom Reed. This district is what I’m interested in.”

 

 

 

 

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About pystew

Retired Teacher, political science geek, village trustee. I lean a little left, but like a good political discussion. My blog, the New NY 23rd (http://newny23rd) is about discussing the issues facing the people of our new congressional district. Let's hear all sides of the issues, not just what the candidates want us to hear.
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11 Responses to Trump, Polls, & the NY 23rd House Race

  1. Go to Tom Reed’s “politician” FaceBook page and you will find Reed constantly trying to paint himself as an outsider and John Plumb as a Washington Insider. In fact, you seldom see him refer to John Plumb without saying “DC John Plumb.

    https://www.facebook.com/VoteTomReed/

    Yet Reed’s actions shows that he is just as much, if not far more of a Washington Insider than John Plumb is. How much more insider can you get than to have Paul Ryan come into your district to campaign for you and to raise money for you?

    And when Tom Reed wanted to justify his support for Donald Trump, where did he go to publish it? He published his ode to Trump in “The Hill”. The Hill is a site run by Washington Insiders with a target audience of Washington Insiders.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/291787-trump-is-the-clear-choice

    Tom Reed won’t hesitate to use his Washington insider connections when it serves his purpose. Yet he criticizes John Plumb for being an insider. If Mr. Rogers were alive today he’d probably say, “Can you say ‘hypocrite’ boys and girls? There, I knew you could.”

  2. whungerford says:

    It’s not what Tom says, but the impression he leaves particularly with Republican voters–good old Tom, the baby of his family, Mr. Nice Guy, from here, hard working, one of us.

  3. josephurban says:

    Here in the boondocks of Yates county I see plenty of Trump lawn signs. I presume they are associated with/ supplied by the NRA support for Trump and Reed. Reed does a good job of focusing on one issue (here it is the phony 2nd Amendment rights issue) and trying to use that as the only issue . Simplify. Simplify. Simplify. He will continue to focus on”gun rights” and try to characterize Plumb as anti-gun. I can guarantee it. If Plumb is smart he will emphasize his military background and his support for 2nd Amendment rights. At last here in the boondocks. Do not let Reed establish the false narrative.

  4. Deb Meeker says:

    Will we see any press releases or photos from Speaker Ryan’s visit for Tom Reed’s fundraiser? Possibly, because together they will speak of unity of their party, what a great job Reed has done so far. etc. If Trump is mentioned at all – it will be minimal. I think the drag on Reed’s election chances are even more his poor with his choices of denigrating Plumb’s military service, and Reed’s own inability to stay faithful to his words. Reed flip flops accordingly to his audience, and some are becoming aware that his “fairness” buzz word, is followed with one lie after another.

    • pystew says:

      I am hearing more and more about Reed’s fake Facebook and Twitter accounts. How can we trust what our representative when he sends fake messages and signs them John Plumb?

  5. Donna mcGratg says:

    Tom Reed is an awesiome Congressman. Go to CSpan and listen yo his speeches he gets it.

    • Deb Meeker says:

      I have watched many of Tom Reed’s CSPAN speeches. If he “gets it” – what has he been doing with it?

    • pystew says:

      I’ll admit that Reed is an awesome campaigner. He does it all of the time. His Town Hall meeting are an important part of his campaign. In the Span videos he tells us what he wants us to think. He proposed bills with great sounding names “Credit For Caring” for example, but the bills never get past the first step of becoming a law–they die in the committee process. But, he keeps “campaigning” by talking about the bill – which he knows won’t become law. There are many other bills that have dies in the committee process.

      I do not think he is an awesome congressman. Look at the facts–look at his votes. He wants to protect us, then he votes to close Homeland Security. He complains about corporations moving overseas, but votes to give them tax cuts. He defunds AMTRAK (including funds for safer trains) then tries to take credit for Alstrom, train manufacture in Hornell, getting grants to produce safer cars. He’ll tell you that he supports manufacturing in our district, but he won’t tell his votes. See https://newny23rd.com/2016/08/08/reeds-alstomamtrak-votes-fits-a-pattern/

      There are awesome congress members, but in my opinion, he is not one of them.

      I know Reed attacks his opponent John Plumb by pointing out that he has served our country for 22 years. Does that make sense? Notice he does not discuss talk about his voting record.

  6. LMack says:

    Reed’s ethics are questionable. as documented in the local papers, his judgment questionable and his phony spliced & edited political ads against John Plumb, so easily spotted, are all negatives for him. I can’t see where he’s done anything positive for Chemung County, so even though I’m a registered Republican, my vote will go to John Plumb.

    • whungerford says:

      It isn’t clear anymore what it means to be a Republican–is it Ryan’s party, Trumps’s, or the Liberty Caucus?

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