On April 19 we will have the opportunity to have our voices effect the Presidential races in the New York State Federal Primary. In an October article, NYS Presidential Primary Info, the NewNY23rd predicted:
“By the time our primaries are held, there is a good chance that one of the candidates in each party would have a large enough lead in delegates that the race would realistically be over.”
It looks like this is one of those rare years that our primary will play a pivotal part in the outcome of both parties’ campaigns. Even though both parties will have their primary on the same date, there are enough differences between their processes and the politics each party will be discussed in separate articles.
There will be four candidates on the GOP ballot. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Ben Carson. Carson has suspended his campaign, but his name remains on the ballot. Cruz and Kasich are trying to keep Trump from sewing up the nomination by receiving 1,237 delegate votes at the July 18-21 Cleveland Convention.
According to The Green Papers website: New York Primaries are “Closed”, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote it, (and only registered Democrats can vote in their primary). There are 95 GOP delegates available. Eighty-one delegates are chosen by Congressional Districts. Each of the 27 districts have will have 3 delegates for the candidates to battle over.
- If one of the candidates receive more that 50% of the poplar vote in a district he will receive all three district delegates.
- If no one receives a majority of the district’s votes the delegates will be divided among the candidates who received at least 20% of the votes.
- If three candidates receive 20% or more often votes, each one will receive one delegate.
- If only two candidates receive more than 20% of the district’s votes, the candidate who received the most votes will receive two delegates, and the other candidate will receive one.
- If only one candidate receives more than 20% of the votes, he will receive all three delegates.
There are also 14 At-Large delegates:
- If a candidate receives more than 50% of the total vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates
- Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote.
The main kink in this primary process is that last year the NYS Republican Committee changed the procedure on how the delegates are chosen. In previous years each presidential candidate would choose who would be their delegate(s) to the convention. Last year it was changed so the State Committee will now decide. According to reports the delegates will be party loyalists. The delegates are bound for the 1st ballot to vote for their assigned candidate. They are not bound after the first ballot and can vote for who they choose. An article, “How New York’s new GOP delegate rules could help derail Donald Trump” from Syracuse.com explains the process well.
Let’s get realistic. The drama in this primary swirls around the GOP’s leaders trying to stop Trump from earning the 1237 delegates needed to guarantee his nomination.
Trump will help his chances by winning 50% of the vote in as many districts possible. Cruz and Kasich will try to stop him. There is a lot of noise about Trump, but serious conservatives quietly talk about Cruz. When I ask “moderate” republican friends, “Trump or Cruz?” I often don’t get a straight answer. Usually Benghazi and emails somehow get in the discussion, then it switches to Socialism and Communism. Others just shake their heads and say they might stay home.
That doesn’t mean that things won’t change by April 19. We are the first primary after the Wisconsin’s April 5 contest, and the only one being held on April 19. We will get the candidates’ undivided attention for two whole weeks. During that time we will be bombarded by political ads and robo calls up the yin-yang.
Although most of the state’s votes come from the NYC/Long Island area, the candidates will have plenty of time to visit upstate districts for rallies, local interviews and photo-ops. That brings up some questions:
- Will Trump, Cruz and Kasich make it to every congressional district? (I would think they would want to and it really wouldn’t be too difficult to do in two weeks.)
- How many Trump rallies will Tom Reed attend? Will he speak at the rallies? How will this affect his June 28 primary against conservative Gary Perry and his race against John Plumb in November?
- Will there be protesters at the rallies?
- Will there be a debate during the two weeks before the primary?
- The important question will be how many republican voters will turn out to vote against the front-running Trump? How many districts will he get more than 50% of the vote? Will Cruz get 50% of the vote in any district? Will Kasich receive 20% of the vote in any district?
The closeness of each party’s race shows that each vote is critical. Cast it wisely.