The highly respected “Cook Political Report” moved NY23rd’s Congressional Race from a 
“Likely Republican” outcome to a “Leaning Republican” outcome. This move was one of ten races that Cook changed in the Democrats’ Favor. Another race that Cook changes was our neighboring NY-24th, with current Rep. John Katko, a republican, from “Leaning Republican” to “Toss-Up Republican .” That’s two neighboring upstate districts which are being seen as being a lighter shade of red.
The Cook Political Report made the changes based in part because of the turmoil in the GOP:
“So many assumptions have been wrong this cycle that it’s difficult to be definitive about another: that the House majority won’t be in play in 2016,” wrote longtime Cook political analyst David Wasserman.
While a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination “wouldn’t guarantee a down-ballot disaster,” Wasserman wrote, “it would make congressional races much more difficult to predict.”
The Republican Leadership has already advised their candidates to disregard the racket in the presidential race and keep the issues local. Reed can try to keep the issues local, but he falls short when the issues are compared with his lack of actually helping the people of the district.
On Monday, Carl Paladino sent Reed a strongly written memo that urged him to back Trump before the April 19 Presidential Primary. It worked. On Wednesday Reed announced that:
“Now is the time to unite behind the candidate who I believe will be our nominee, Donald Trump.We must move beyond the bombastic rhetoric to positive discussion about creating jobs and improving the lives of all Americans. We all care about improving people’s lives — that should always be our focus.”
Reed is a quick learner–he said that he is endorsing Trump, and then he turns the conversation back to his routine talking points. He can not tout his accomplishments after being in congress since 2010.
Then on Friday, Cook announced that our congressional race is now a bit closer to be turning blue. We must remember that conservative Gary Perry has recently announced that he will challenge Reed in the June 28 Primary, citing Reed’s dismal performance as one of the reasons he decided to run. The winner of the Primary will advance to the General Election to meet Navy Veteran John Plumb from Randolph in November.
I wonder what events will happen next week.
New NY 23rd 
It is time for Reed to bring out his smear machine and start inundating our mailboxes with lies about his opponent.
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Do you mean like Trump, his hero?
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In the face of RNC advice to distance himself from Donald Trump, Reed embraced him. This is a mystery to me. Reportedly Reed claims phone calls support his decision, but facebook comments run strongly against. Is the facebook audience different from those who call, or does Reed simply ignore critical calls?
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Reed’s is a bewildering choice to me too. Kasich was the only barely near Republican running after Rubio pulled out. One would have thought Reed would have gone the quiet route of a “moderate” rather than a wacko. Must be big pressure from somewhere, but what can Paladino do to Reed in this district? Must be Tom Reed believes Trump will actually win the election?
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Maybe Tom hopes to be appointed to the Supreme Court should Trump become President.
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Paladino also sent a threatening note to Stefanik over in NY-21, and is apparently asking someone to primary her.
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Yes, I read that and it confuses me. Conservative Gary Perry from Waverly has announced that he is challenging Reed in the June Primary. He is a big Paladino supporter. What threat would Paladino have over Reed if he is already being primaried? Does having Reed throw his support to Trump weaken Lewis’ campaign?
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Tom is a Republican stalwart; it is astonishing that he would break with the leadership in supporting Trump. I doubt Paladino’s entreaty was decisive. Perhaps it was a move to undercut Gary Perry. “Buf New”s says his support for Trump is “lukewarm.” Could it be that he is backing off his support for Trump?
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It almost leads one to think Paladino has some kind of back story on Tom Reed, for Reed to jump into backing Trump this early, with both feet as it were. Does anyone remember Tom Reed endorsing Paladino when he was running for Governor?
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For Tom, the only thing that trumps party loyalty is self-interest. Perhaps he is pursuing an employment opportunity for himself.
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That’s hopeful. It might suggest Reed has deep concerns about being re-elected.
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