The highly respected “Cook Political Report” moved NY23rd’s Congressional Race from a “Likely Republican” outcome to a “Leaning Republican” outcome. This move was one of ten races that Cook changed in the Democrats’ Favor. Another race that Cook changes was our neighboring NY-24th, with current Rep. John Katko, a republican, from “Leaning Republican” to “Toss-Up Republican .” That’s two neighboring upstate districts which are being seen as being a lighter shade of red.
The Cook Political Report made the changes based in part because of the turmoil in the GOP:
“So many assumptions have been wrong this cycle that it’s difficult to be definitive about another: that the House majority won’t be in play in 2016,” wrote longtime Cook political analyst David Wasserman.
While a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination “wouldn’t guarantee a down-ballot disaster,” Wasserman wrote, “it would make congressional races much more difficult to predict.”
The Republican Leadership has already advised their candidates to disregard the racket in the presidential race and keep the issues local. Reed can try to keep the issues local, but he falls short when the issues are compared with his lack of actually helping the people of the district.
On Monday, Carl Paladino sent Reed a strongly written memo that urged him to back Trump before the April 19 Presidential Primary. It worked. On Wednesday Reed announced that:
“Now is the time to unite behind the candidate who I believe will be our nominee, Donald Trump.We must move beyond the bombastic rhetoric to positive discussion about creating jobs and improving the lives of all Americans. We all care about improving people’s lives — that should always be our focus.”
Reed is a quick learner–he said that he is endorsing Trump, and then he turns the conversation back to his routine talking points. He can not tout his accomplishments after being in congress since 2010.
Then on Friday, Cook announced that our congressional race is now a bit closer to be turning blue. We must remember that conservative Gary Perry has recently announced that he will challenge Reed in the June 28 Primary, citing Reed’s dismal performance as one of the reasons he decided to run. The winner of the Primary will advance to the General Election to meet Navy Veteran John Plumb from Randolph in November.
I wonder what events will happen next week.