The Future of Election Forecasting
Landlines are dying—and taking phone-based opinion polling with them. Scientific American, Oct 14, 2014 By Regina Nuzzo
In the past, it was possible to get a satisfactory random sample by picking random telephone numbers. Regina Ruzzo writes that with so many Americans using cell phones, this is no longer possible. She suggests various alternatives:
- On-line surveys
- Video Games
- Social Media
None of these are ideal. Relying on such methods may explain wide variation between predictions or why predictions are sometimes inaccurate. Yet Nuzzo’s article suggest that such methods are potentially equal or better than more traditional polls.