The Future of Election Forecasting

The Future of Election Forecasting

vote_imageLandlines are dying—and taking phone-based opinion polling with them. Scientific American, Oct 14, 2014 |By Regina Nuzzo

In the past, it was possible to get a satisfactory random sample by picking random telephone numbers. Regina Ruzzo writes that with so many Americans using cell phones, this is no longer possible. She suggests various alternatives:

  • On-line surveys
  • Video Games
  • Social Media
  • Gambling

None of these are ideal. Relying on such methods may explain wide variation between predictions or why predictions are sometimes inaccurate. Yet Nuzzo’s article suggest that such methods are potentially equal or better than more traditional polls.

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3 Responses to The Future of Election Forecasting

  1. Deb Meeker says:

    The suggestions offered for future polling by Regina Nuzzo, might be added to polling, but those by themselves also leave out large voting blocs. Seniors are getting online in larger numbers, but may still be more easily reached by line line phones, the same with social media. Gambling? Hmm do I care about the opinion of people who would answer a political poll while they’re losing money? Younger people, the voter’s that seem to have the most apathy toward voting, might be canvassed on campuses with better result?


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