In 2010, Tom Reed ran for Congress against Matt Zeller in the former 29th district; in 2012 he ran against Nate Shinagawa in the new 23rd district. Here are some approximate data:
- 2010 Votes Spending
- Reed 100,000 $400,000
- Zeller 78,000 $200,000
- Reed 125,000 $2,000,000
- Shinagawa 116,000 $639,000
There were many differences between 2010 and 2012:
- 2012 was a Presidential election year.
- Reed was the incumbent in 2012
- The district had changed from 29th to 23rd
- The Democratic candidates were different
- The issues were different
- Independent PAC spending favored Reed.
Superficially, Reed’s additional spending in 2012 corresponded to 25,000 more votes–about six dollars additional spending per additional vote. The Democrat’s additional spending in 2012 corresponded to 36,000 more votes– about three dollars additional spending per additional vote. It isn’t surprising that the lesser known Democrat, Nate Shinagawa, got a better deal than the incumbent, Reed–the challenger has more to gain. Based on this analysis, Tom should plan to spend twice as much as Martha Robertson to win in 2014.
© William Hungerford – April 2014